Modeling the Dynamics of Renewable Energy and Environmental Quality: VAR Approach

Published: November 12, 2025
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Abstract

This study investigates the dynamic interrelationships between renewable energy production and key environmental and economic indicators in Uzbekistan, including CO₂ emissions, PM2.5 air pollution, green foreign direct investment (FDI), and energy efficiency. Using a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model with annual time series data from 2012 to 2024, the analysis reveals significant bidirectional causal links among the variables. The results indicate that increases in green FDI and improvements in air quality significantly drive renewable energy development. However, the limited reverse impact from renewable energy to CO₂ reduction suggests a gap in implementation and integration. Granger causality tests confirm that environmental and investment factors strongly influence both energy efficiency and renewable output. The findings highlight the importance of strategic policy measures focused on green investment, pollution control, and sustainable energy reforms. This research contributes to the understanding of sustainable energy transitions in developing economies and offers evidence-based insights for shaping Uzbekistan’s green energy future.

Published in Abstract Book of the 2025 International Conference on Science, Built Environment and Engineering
Page(s) 14-14
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access abstract, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2025. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Green Economy, Environmental Economics, Sustainable Energy Sources, Pollution