Relevance of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) Theory in the Context of Urban Waste Generation

I Made Gunuamantha; I Gede Astra Wesnawa; Ni Wayan Yuningrat; Made Vivi Oviantari

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ajere.20251004.15

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Relevance of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) Theory in the Context of Urban Waste Generation

I Made Gunuamantha^*

, I Gede Astra Wesnawa

, Ni Wayan Yuningrat

, Made Vivi Oviantari

Published in American Journal of Environmental and Resource Economics (Volume 10, Issue 4)

Received: 10 November 2025 Accepted: 26 November 2025 Published: 20 December 2025

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Abstract

This study examines the empirical relationship between economic growth and municipal solid waste (MSW) generation in Bali, Indonesia, within the framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. Employing a quantitative ex post facto design, the research utilizes panel data regression to analyze historical data from nine districts over a five-year period, assessing whether increasing income levels contribute to reduced waste generation after a certain threshold. Model diagnostics, including the Chow, Hausman, and Lagrange Multiplier (LM) tests, were conducted using EViews 12 to ensure robustness. The findings reveal a U-shaped relationship, contrary to the traditional inverted-U pattern predicted by the EKC. The coefficient for GRDP per capita is negative but statistically insignificant, whereas the squared GRDP term is positive and significant, suggesting that waste generation rises after reaching an income threshold of approximately IDR 15.7 million per capita per year. To enhance model precision, population and hotel room variables were included as proxies for demographic and tourism pressures, respectively. Model selection tests identified the Random Effects Model (REM) as the most appropriate specification. Interestingly, both additional variables exhibited negative relationships with waste generation, implying that districts with higher population density and tourism intensity may possess more efficient waste management systems. Overall, the results suggest that the EKC hypothesis does not fully apply to Bali’s waste dynamics, emphasizing the need for policy-driven, evidence-based waste management strategies-particularly in regions where economic and tourism growth remain major environmental stressors.

Published in	American Journal of Environmental and Resource Economics (Volume 10, Issue 4)
DOI	10.11648/j.ajere.20251004.15
Page(s)	161-170
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2025. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), Municipal Solid Waste (MSW), Economic Growth, Decoupling, Sustainable Development, Bali

References

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APA Style

Gunuamantha, I. M., Wesnawa, I. G. A., Yuningrat, N. W., Oviantari, M. V. (2025). Relevance of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) Theory in the Context of Urban Waste Generation. American Journal of Environmental and Resource Economics, 10(4), 161-170. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajere.20251004.15

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ACS Style

Gunuamantha, I. M.; Wesnawa, I. G. A.; Yuningrat, N. W.; Oviantari, M. V. Relevance of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) Theory in the Context of Urban Waste Generation. Am. J. Environ. Resour. Econ. 2025, 10(4), 161-170. doi: 10.11648/j.ajere.20251004.15

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AMA Style

Gunuamantha IM, Wesnawa IGA, Yuningrat NW, Oviantari MV. Relevance of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) Theory in the Context of Urban Waste Generation. Am J Environ Resour Econ. 2025;10(4):161-170. doi: 10.11648/j.ajere.20251004.15

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@article{10.11648/j.ajere.20251004.15,
  author = {I Made Gunuamantha and I Gede Astra Wesnawa and Ni Wayan Yuningrat and Made Vivi Oviantari},
  title = {Relevance of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) Theory in the Context of Urban Waste Generation},
  journal = {American Journal of Environmental and Resource Economics},
  volume = {10},
  number = {4},
  pages = {161-170},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ajere.20251004.15},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajere.20251004.15},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajere.20251004.15},
  abstract = {This study examines the empirical relationship between economic growth and municipal solid waste (MSW) generation in Bali, Indonesia, within the framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. Employing a quantitative ex post facto design, the research utilizes panel data regression to analyze historical data from nine districts over a five-year period, assessing whether increasing income levels contribute to reduced waste generation after a certain threshold. Model diagnostics, including the Chow, Hausman, and Lagrange Multiplier (LM) tests, were conducted using EViews 12 to ensure robustness. The findings reveal a U-shaped relationship, contrary to the traditional inverted-U pattern predicted by the EKC. The coefficient for GRDP per capita is negative but statistically insignificant, whereas the squared GRDP term is positive and significant, suggesting that waste generation rises after reaching an income threshold of approximately IDR 15.7 million per capita per year. To enhance model precision, population and hotel room variables were included as proxies for demographic and tourism pressures, respectively. Model selection tests identified the Random Effects Model (REM) as the most appropriate specification. Interestingly, both additional variables exhibited negative relationships with waste generation, implying that districts with higher population density and tourism intensity may possess more efficient waste management systems. Overall, the results suggest that the EKC hypothesis does not fully apply to Bali’s waste dynamics, emphasizing the need for policy-driven, evidence-based waste management strategies-particularly in regions where economic and tourism growth remain major environmental stressors.},
 year = {2025}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Relevance of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) Theory in the Context of Urban Waste Generation
AU  - I Made Gunuamantha
AU  - I Gede Astra Wesnawa
AU  - Ni Wayan Yuningrat
AU  - Made Vivi Oviantari
Y1  - 2025/12/20
PY  - 2025
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajere.20251004.15
DO  - 10.11648/j.ajere.20251004.15
T2  - American Journal of Environmental and Resource Economics
JF  - American Journal of Environmental and Resource Economics
JO  - American Journal of Environmental and Resource Economics
SP  - 161
EP  - 170
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2578-787X
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajere.20251004.15
AB  - This study examines the empirical relationship between economic growth and municipal solid waste (MSW) generation in Bali, Indonesia, within the framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. Employing a quantitative ex post facto design, the research utilizes panel data regression to analyze historical data from nine districts over a five-year period, assessing whether increasing income levels contribute to reduced waste generation after a certain threshold. Model diagnostics, including the Chow, Hausman, and Lagrange Multiplier (LM) tests, were conducted using EViews 12 to ensure robustness. The findings reveal a U-shaped relationship, contrary to the traditional inverted-U pattern predicted by the EKC. The coefficient for GRDP per capita is negative but statistically insignificant, whereas the squared GRDP term is positive and significant, suggesting that waste generation rises after reaching an income threshold of approximately IDR 15.7 million per capita per year. To enhance model precision, population and hotel room variables were included as proxies for demographic and tourism pressures, respectively. Model selection tests identified the Random Effects Model (REM) as the most appropriate specification. Interestingly, both additional variables exhibited negative relationships with waste generation, implying that districts with higher population density and tourism intensity may possess more efficient waste management systems. Overall, the results suggest that the EKC hypothesis does not fully apply to Bali’s waste dynamics, emphasizing the need for policy-driven, evidence-based waste management strategies-particularly in regions where economic and tourism growth remain major environmental stressors.
VL  - 10
IS  - 4
ER  -

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Author Information

I Made Gunuamantha

Environmental Management Department, Universitas Pendidikan Ganesha, Singaraja, Indonesia

Contact Email

http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4112-8097
I Gede Astra Wesnawa

Environmental Management Department, Universitas Pendidikan Ganesha, Singaraja, Indonesia

Contact Email

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2734-6074
Ni Wayan Yuningrat

Applied Chemistry Department, Universitas Pendidikan Ganesha, Singaraja, Indonesia

Contact Email

http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1785-6211
Made Vivi Oviantari

Applied Chemistry Department, Universitas Pendidikan Ganesha, Singaraja, Indonesia

Contact Email

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1069-8495

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APA Style

Gunuamantha, I. M., Wesnawa, I. G. A., Yuningrat, N. W., Oviantari, M. V. (2025). Relevance of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) Theory in the Context of Urban Waste Generation. American Journal of Environmental and Resource Economics, 10(4), 161-170. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajere.20251004.15

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ACS Style

Gunuamantha, I. M.; Wesnawa, I. G. A.; Yuningrat, N. W.; Oviantari, M. V. Relevance of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) Theory in the Context of Urban Waste Generation. Am. J. Environ. Resour. Econ. 2025, 10(4), 161-170. doi: 10.11648/j.ajere.20251004.15

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AMA Style

Gunuamantha IM, Wesnawa IGA, Yuningrat NW, Oviantari MV. Relevance of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) Theory in the Context of Urban Waste Generation. Am J Environ Resour Econ. 2025;10(4):161-170. doi: 10.11648/j.ajere.20251004.15

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ajere.20251004.15,
  author = {I Made Gunuamantha and I Gede Astra Wesnawa and Ni Wayan Yuningrat and Made Vivi Oviantari},
  title = {Relevance of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) Theory in the Context of Urban Waste Generation},
  journal = {American Journal of Environmental and Resource Economics},
  volume = {10},
  number = {4},
  pages = {161-170},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ajere.20251004.15},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajere.20251004.15},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajere.20251004.15},
  abstract = {This study examines the empirical relationship between economic growth and municipal solid waste (MSW) generation in Bali, Indonesia, within the framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. Employing a quantitative ex post facto design, the research utilizes panel data regression to analyze historical data from nine districts over a five-year period, assessing whether increasing income levels contribute to reduced waste generation after a certain threshold. Model diagnostics, including the Chow, Hausman, and Lagrange Multiplier (LM) tests, were conducted using EViews 12 to ensure robustness. The findings reveal a U-shaped relationship, contrary to the traditional inverted-U pattern predicted by the EKC. The coefficient for GRDP per capita is negative but statistically insignificant, whereas the squared GRDP term is positive and significant, suggesting that waste generation rises after reaching an income threshold of approximately IDR 15.7 million per capita per year. To enhance model precision, population and hotel room variables were included as proxies for demographic and tourism pressures, respectively. Model selection tests identified the Random Effects Model (REM) as the most appropriate specification. Interestingly, both additional variables exhibited negative relationships with waste generation, implying that districts with higher population density and tourism intensity may possess more efficient waste management systems. Overall, the results suggest that the EKC hypothesis does not fully apply to Bali’s waste dynamics, emphasizing the need for policy-driven, evidence-based waste management strategies-particularly in regions where economic and tourism growth remain major environmental stressors.},
 year = {2025}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Relevance of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) Theory in the Context of Urban Waste Generation
AU  - I Made Gunuamantha
AU  - I Gede Astra Wesnawa
AU  - Ni Wayan Yuningrat
AU  - Made Vivi Oviantari
Y1  - 2025/12/20
PY  - 2025
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajere.20251004.15
DO  - 10.11648/j.ajere.20251004.15
T2  - American Journal of Environmental and Resource Economics
JF  - American Journal of Environmental and Resource Economics
JO  - American Journal of Environmental and Resource Economics
SP  - 161
EP  - 170
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2578-787X
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajere.20251004.15
AB  - This study examines the empirical relationship between economic growth and municipal solid waste (MSW) generation in Bali, Indonesia, within the framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. Employing a quantitative ex post facto design, the research utilizes panel data regression to analyze historical data from nine districts over a five-year period, assessing whether increasing income levels contribute to reduced waste generation after a certain threshold. Model diagnostics, including the Chow, Hausman, and Lagrange Multiplier (LM) tests, were conducted using EViews 12 to ensure robustness. The findings reveal a U-shaped relationship, contrary to the traditional inverted-U pattern predicted by the EKC. The coefficient for GRDP per capita is negative but statistically insignificant, whereas the squared GRDP term is positive and significant, suggesting that waste generation rises after reaching an income threshold of approximately IDR 15.7 million per capita per year. To enhance model precision, population and hotel room variables were included as proxies for demographic and tourism pressures, respectively. Model selection tests identified the Random Effects Model (REM) as the most appropriate specification. Interestingly, both additional variables exhibited negative relationships with waste generation, implying that districts with higher population density and tourism intensity may possess more efficient waste management systems. Overall, the results suggest that the EKC hypothesis does not fully apply to Bali’s waste dynamics, emphasizing the need for policy-driven, evidence-based waste management strategies-particularly in regions where economic and tourism growth remain major environmental stressors.
VL  - 10
IS  - 4
ER  -

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