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Risk Factor and Spatial Pattern Analysis of Neonatal Mortality in Kenya

Received: 18 April 2025     Accepted: 29 April 2025     Published: 3 June 2025
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Abstract

Neonatal health is a critical component of overall public health, providing the groundwork for a healthy life and making a substantial contribution to the social and economic advancement of any nation. Despite the progress that has been made in reducing the global neonatal mortality rate, substantial regional disparities persist, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. In Kenya, the NMR stands at 21 deaths per 1,000 live births (as of 2022) which is higher than the global average. The main objective for this study was to perform risk factor and spatial pattern analysis of neonatal mortality in Kenya. A multivariate logistic regression model was fitted that identified urban residence, underweight birth weight status, unimproved water sources, and non-hospital deliveries (especially in non standard locations) as the significant contributors of neonatal mortality in Kenya. Getis-Ord Gi statistics identified Wajir, Garissa, and Lamu counties as major hotspots in Kenya after showing a strong spatial clustering of high neonatal mortality rates. GWLR, utilized in this study, revealed that climatic factors, such as temperature and aridity, impact neonatal mortality differently across regions in Kenya. Generally, higher temperatures are a significant risk factor for neonatal mortality, particularly in arid counties like Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Tana River, and Lamu.

Published in American Journal of Mathematical and Computer Modelling (Volume 10, Issue 2)
DOI 10.11648/j.ajmcm.20251002.12
Page(s) 54-65
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2025. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

KDHS, WHO, GWLR, NMR, ANC, UNICEF

References
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[2] Ogallo, W., Speakman, S., Akinwande, V., Varshney, K. R., Walcott-Bryant, A., Wayua, C., ... & Orobaton, N. (2021, January). Identifying factors associated with neonatal mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa using machine learning. In AMIA Annual Symposium Proceedings (Vol. 2020, p. 963).
[3] Elkasabi, M., Ren, R., & Pullum, T. W. (2020). Multilevel modeling using DHS surveys: a framework to approximate level-weights. ICF.
[4] Abid, R. I. (2024). Identifying Spatial Patterns of Road Accidents in Madaba City by Applying Getis- Ord Gi* Spatial Statistic. International Journal of Engineering and Advanced Technology, 13(4), 1-8.
[5] UNICEF. (2017). Maternal and Newborn Health Disparities, Kenya. UNICEF Data.
[6] Ahmed, K. Y., Thapa, S., Hassen, T. A., Tegegne, T. K., Dadi, A. F., Odo, D. B., ... & Ross, A. G. (2024). Population modifiable risk factors associated with neonatal mortality in 35 sub- Saharan Africa countries: analysis of data from demographic and health surveys. EClinicalMedicine, 73.
[7] Appiah, E. K., Aidoo, E. N., Avuglah, R. K., & Appiah, S. K. (2024). Geographically weighted logistic regression model for identifying risk factors for malaria infection among under-5 children in Ghana. Scientific African, 26, e02398.
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[9] Kibret, G. D., Demant, D., & Hayen, A. (2022). Bayesian spatial analysis of factors influencing neonatal mortality and its geographic variation in Ethiopia. PloS one, 17(7), e0270879.
[10] Mollalo, A., Vahedi, B., Bhattarai, S., Hopkins, L. C., Banik, S., & Vahedi, B. (2020). Predicting the hotspots of age-adjusted mortality rates of lower respiratory infection across the continental United States: Integration of GIS, spatial statistics and machine learning algorithms. International Journal of Medical Informatics, 142, 104248.
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[12] Novianti, P., & Rosadi, D. (2023). Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression Model on Binomial Data to Explore Weather Spatial Non-Stationarity in Covid-19 Cases. Engineering Letters, 31(3).
[13] Habtamu Kebebe Kasaye, H. K. K., Firew Tekle Bobo, F. T. B., Mekdes Tigistu Yilma, M. T. Y., & Mirkuzie Woldie, M. W. (2019). Poor nutrition for under-five children from poor households in Ethiopia: evidence from 2016 Demographic and Health Survey.
[14] Ogbo, F. A., Page, A., Idoko, J., & Agho, K. E. (2018). Population attributable risk of key modifiable risk factors associated with non-exclusive breastfeeding in Nigeria. BMC public health, 18, 1-9.
[15] Ouma, P. O., Malla, L., Wachira, B. W., Kiarie, H., Mumo, J., Snow, R. W., ... & Okiro, E. A. (2022). Geospatial mapping of timely access to inpatient neonatal care and its relationship to neonatal mortality in Kenya. PLOS global public health, 2(6), e0000216.
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Cite This Article
  • APA Style

    Nyabuto, G. M., Malenje, B., Wanjoya, A. (2025). Risk Factor and Spatial Pattern Analysis of Neonatal Mortality in Kenya. American Journal of Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 10(2), 54-65. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajmcm.20251002.12

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    ACS Style

    Nyabuto, G. M.; Malenje, B.; Wanjoya, A. Risk Factor and Spatial Pattern Analysis of Neonatal Mortality in Kenya. Am. J. Math. Comput. Model. 2025, 10(2), 54-65. doi: 10.11648/j.ajmcm.20251002.12

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    AMA Style

    Nyabuto GM, Malenje B, Wanjoya A. Risk Factor and Spatial Pattern Analysis of Neonatal Mortality in Kenya. Am J Math Comput Model. 2025;10(2):54-65. doi: 10.11648/j.ajmcm.20251002.12

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  • @article{10.11648/j.ajmcm.20251002.12,
      author = {Getrude Moraa Nyabuto and Bonface Malenje and Anthony Wanjoya},
      title = {Risk Factor and Spatial Pattern Analysis of Neonatal Mortality in Kenya},
      journal = {American Journal of Mathematical and Computer Modelling},
      volume = {10},
      number = {2},
      pages = {54-65},
      doi = {10.11648/j.ajmcm.20251002.12},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajmcm.20251002.12},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajmcm.20251002.12},
      abstract = {Neonatal health is a critical component of overall public health, providing the groundwork for a healthy life and making a substantial contribution to the social and economic advancement of any nation. Despite the progress that has been made in reducing the global neonatal mortality rate, substantial regional disparities persist, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. In Kenya, the NMR stands at 21 deaths per 1,000 live births (as of 2022) which is higher than the global average. The main objective for this study was to perform risk factor and spatial pattern analysis of neonatal mortality in Kenya. A multivariate logistic regression model was fitted that identified urban residence, underweight birth weight status, unimproved water sources, and non-hospital deliveries (especially in non standard locations) as the significant contributors of neonatal mortality in Kenya. Getis-Ord Gi statistics identified Wajir, Garissa, and Lamu counties as major hotspots in Kenya after showing a strong spatial clustering of high neonatal mortality rates. GWLR, utilized in this study, revealed that climatic factors, such as temperature and aridity, impact neonatal mortality differently across regions in Kenya. Generally, higher temperatures are a significant risk factor for neonatal mortality, particularly in arid counties like Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Tana River, and Lamu.},
     year = {2025}
    }
    

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  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - Risk Factor and Spatial Pattern Analysis of Neonatal Mortality in Kenya
    AU  - Getrude Moraa Nyabuto
    AU  - Bonface Malenje
    AU  - Anthony Wanjoya
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    N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajmcm.20251002.12
    DO  - 10.11648/j.ajmcm.20251002.12
    T2  - American Journal of Mathematical and Computer Modelling
    JF  - American Journal of Mathematical and Computer Modelling
    JO  - American Journal of Mathematical and Computer Modelling
    SP  - 54
    EP  - 65
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2578-8280
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajmcm.20251002.12
    AB  - Neonatal health is a critical component of overall public health, providing the groundwork for a healthy life and making a substantial contribution to the social and economic advancement of any nation. Despite the progress that has been made in reducing the global neonatal mortality rate, substantial regional disparities persist, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. In Kenya, the NMR stands at 21 deaths per 1,000 live births (as of 2022) which is higher than the global average. The main objective for this study was to perform risk factor and spatial pattern analysis of neonatal mortality in Kenya. A multivariate logistic regression model was fitted that identified urban residence, underweight birth weight status, unimproved water sources, and non-hospital deliveries (especially in non standard locations) as the significant contributors of neonatal mortality in Kenya. Getis-Ord Gi statistics identified Wajir, Garissa, and Lamu counties as major hotspots in Kenya after showing a strong spatial clustering of high neonatal mortality rates. GWLR, utilized in this study, revealed that climatic factors, such as temperature and aridity, impact neonatal mortality differently across regions in Kenya. Generally, higher temperatures are a significant risk factor for neonatal mortality, particularly in arid counties like Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Tana River, and Lamu.
    VL  - 10
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Author Information
  • Department of Statistics and Actuarial Sciences, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology (JKUAT), Nairobi, Kenya

  • Department of Statistics and Actuarial Sciences, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology (JKUAT), Nairobi, Kenya

  • Department of Statistics and Actuarial Sciences, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology (JKUAT), Nairobi, Kenya

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