Targeting Efficiency of the Household Upliftment Programme in Southwestern Nigeria

Ayoola Abosede Adewale

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ajmse.20261101.13

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Targeting Efficiency of the Household Upliftment Programme in Southwestern Nigeria

Ayoola Abosede Adewale^*

Published in American Journal of Management Science and Engineering (Volume 11, Issue 1)

Received: 8 January 2026 Accepted: 27 January 2026 Published: 20 February 2026

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Abstract

This study examines the targeting efficiency of Nigeria’s Household Upliftment Programme (HUP) in Osun and Oyo States, focusing on the extent and cost implications of inclusion and exclusion errors. Using household-level data ranked by multidimensional deprivation scores, the study applies a decile-based classification to assess targeting outcomes across regions and local government areas (LGAs). About 45.27% of beneficiary households were ineligible, indicating substantial inclusion errors that generated a monthly leakage of ₦550,030.50. In contrast, 64.05% of eligible households were excluded from the programme, resulting in a monthly under-coverage cost of ₦1,184,925.00. Exclusion errors were particularly pronounced in the least poor LGAs, where nearly four-fifths of poor and vulnerable households were omitted. The analysis highlights that the humanitarian and welfare costs of exclusion outweigh the fiscal benefits of inclusion, reaffirming earlier evidence from the global social protection literature. Although the HUP demonstrates success in reaching some poor households, improving the accuracy of proxy-means targeting and enhancing data validation mechanisms remain essential for reducing mistargeting and optimizing the social returns of cash transfer programmes in Nigeria. This study contributes to the social protection literature by empirically quantifying the magnitude and fiscal cost of inclusion and exclusion errors in Nigeria’s Household Upliftment Programme using a multidimensional deprivation framework and subnational comparative analysis across poverty-ranked LGAs in Osun and Oyo States.

Published in	American Journal of Management Science and Engineering (Volume 11, Issue 1)
DOI	10.11648/j.ajmse.20261101.13
Page(s)	26-34
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2026. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Targeting Efficiency, Cash Transfer, Social Protection, Nigeria

References

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Adewale, A. A. (2026). Targeting Efficiency of the Household Upliftment Programme in Southwestern Nigeria. American Journal of Management Science and Engineering, 11(1), 26-34. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajmse.20261101.13

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ACS Style

Adewale, A. A. Targeting Efficiency of the Household Upliftment Programme in Southwestern Nigeria. Am. J. Manag. Sci. Eng. 2026, 11(1), 26-34. doi: 10.11648/j.ajmse.20261101.13

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AMA Style

Adewale AA. Targeting Efficiency of the Household Upliftment Programme in Southwestern Nigeria. Am J Manag Sci Eng. 2026;11(1):26-34. doi: 10.11648/j.ajmse.20261101.13

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@article{10.11648/j.ajmse.20261101.13,
  author = {Ayoola Abosede Adewale},
  title = {Targeting Efficiency of the Household Upliftment Programme in Southwestern Nigeria},
  journal = {American Journal of Management Science and Engineering},
  volume = {11},
  number = {1},
  pages = {26-34},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ajmse.20261101.13},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajmse.20261101.13},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajmse.20261101.13},
  abstract = {This study examines the targeting efficiency of Nigeria’s Household Upliftment Programme (HUP) in Osun and Oyo States, focusing on the extent and cost implications of inclusion and exclusion errors. Using household-level data ranked by multidimensional deprivation scores, the study applies a decile-based classification to assess targeting outcomes across regions and local government areas (LGAs). About 45.27% of beneficiary households were ineligible, indicating substantial inclusion errors that generated a monthly leakage of ₦550,030.50. In contrast, 64.05% of eligible households were excluded from the programme, resulting in a monthly under-coverage cost of ₦1,184,925.00. Exclusion errors were particularly pronounced in the least poor LGAs, where nearly four-fifths of poor and vulnerable households were omitted. The analysis highlights that the humanitarian and welfare costs of exclusion outweigh the fiscal benefits of inclusion, reaffirming earlier evidence from the global social protection literature. Although the HUP demonstrates success in reaching some poor households, improving the accuracy of proxy-means targeting and enhancing data validation mechanisms remain essential for reducing mistargeting and optimizing the social returns of cash transfer programmes in Nigeria. This study contributes to the social protection literature by empirically quantifying the magnitude and fiscal cost of inclusion and exclusion errors in Nigeria’s Household Upliftment Programme using a multidimensional deprivation framework and subnational comparative analysis across poverty-ranked LGAs in Osun and Oyo States.},
 year = {2026}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Targeting Efficiency of the Household Upliftment Programme in Southwestern Nigeria
AU  - Ayoola Abosede Adewale
Y1  - 2026/02/20
PY  - 2026
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajmse.20261101.13
DO  - 10.11648/j.ajmse.20261101.13
T2  - American Journal of Management Science and Engineering
JF  - American Journal of Management Science and Engineering
JO  - American Journal of Management Science and Engineering
SP  - 26
EP  - 34
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2575-1379
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajmse.20261101.13
AB  - This study examines the targeting efficiency of Nigeria’s Household Upliftment Programme (HUP) in Osun and Oyo States, focusing on the extent and cost implications of inclusion and exclusion errors. Using household-level data ranked by multidimensional deprivation scores, the study applies a decile-based classification to assess targeting outcomes across regions and local government areas (LGAs). About 45.27% of beneficiary households were ineligible, indicating substantial inclusion errors that generated a monthly leakage of ₦550,030.50. In contrast, 64.05% of eligible households were excluded from the programme, resulting in a monthly under-coverage cost of ₦1,184,925.00. Exclusion errors were particularly pronounced in the least poor LGAs, where nearly four-fifths of poor and vulnerable households were omitted. The analysis highlights that the humanitarian and welfare costs of exclusion outweigh the fiscal benefits of inclusion, reaffirming earlier evidence from the global social protection literature. Although the HUP demonstrates success in reaching some poor households, improving the accuracy of proxy-means targeting and enhancing data validation mechanisms remain essential for reducing mistargeting and optimizing the social returns of cash transfer programmes in Nigeria. This study contributes to the social protection literature by empirically quantifying the magnitude and fiscal cost of inclusion and exclusion errors in Nigeria’s Household Upliftment Programme using a multidimensional deprivation framework and subnational comparative analysis across poverty-ranked LGAs in Osun and Oyo States.
VL  - 11
IS  - 1
ER  -

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Ayoola Abosede Adewale

Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria

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APA Style

Adewale, A. A. (2026). Targeting Efficiency of the Household Upliftment Programme in Southwestern Nigeria. American Journal of Management Science and Engineering, 11(1), 26-34. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajmse.20261101.13

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ACS Style

Adewale, A. A. Targeting Efficiency of the Household Upliftment Programme in Southwestern Nigeria. Am. J. Manag. Sci. Eng. 2026, 11(1), 26-34. doi: 10.11648/j.ajmse.20261101.13

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AMA Style

Adewale AA. Targeting Efficiency of the Household Upliftment Programme in Southwestern Nigeria. Am J Manag Sci Eng. 2026;11(1):26-34. doi: 10.11648/j.ajmse.20261101.13

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@article{10.11648/j.ajmse.20261101.13,
  author = {Ayoola Abosede Adewale},
  title = {Targeting Efficiency of the Household Upliftment Programme in Southwestern Nigeria},
  journal = {American Journal of Management Science and Engineering},
  volume = {11},
  number = {1},
  pages = {26-34},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ajmse.20261101.13},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajmse.20261101.13},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajmse.20261101.13},
  abstract = {This study examines the targeting efficiency of Nigeria’s Household Upliftment Programme (HUP) in Osun and Oyo States, focusing on the extent and cost implications of inclusion and exclusion errors. Using household-level data ranked by multidimensional deprivation scores, the study applies a decile-based classification to assess targeting outcomes across regions and local government areas (LGAs). About 45.27% of beneficiary households were ineligible, indicating substantial inclusion errors that generated a monthly leakage of ₦550,030.50. In contrast, 64.05% of eligible households were excluded from the programme, resulting in a monthly under-coverage cost of ₦1,184,925.00. Exclusion errors were particularly pronounced in the least poor LGAs, where nearly four-fifths of poor and vulnerable households were omitted. The analysis highlights that the humanitarian and welfare costs of exclusion outweigh the fiscal benefits of inclusion, reaffirming earlier evidence from the global social protection literature. Although the HUP demonstrates success in reaching some poor households, improving the accuracy of proxy-means targeting and enhancing data validation mechanisms remain essential for reducing mistargeting and optimizing the social returns of cash transfer programmes in Nigeria. This study contributes to the social protection literature by empirically quantifying the magnitude and fiscal cost of inclusion and exclusion errors in Nigeria’s Household Upliftment Programme using a multidimensional deprivation framework and subnational comparative analysis across poverty-ranked LGAs in Osun and Oyo States.},
 year = {2026}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Targeting Efficiency of the Household Upliftment Programme in Southwestern Nigeria
AU  - Ayoola Abosede Adewale
Y1  - 2026/02/20
PY  - 2026
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajmse.20261101.13
DO  - 10.11648/j.ajmse.20261101.13
T2  - American Journal of Management Science and Engineering
JF  - American Journal of Management Science and Engineering
JO  - American Journal of Management Science and Engineering
SP  - 26
EP  - 34
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2575-1379
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajmse.20261101.13
AB  - This study examines the targeting efficiency of Nigeria’s Household Upliftment Programme (HUP) in Osun and Oyo States, focusing on the extent and cost implications of inclusion and exclusion errors. Using household-level data ranked by multidimensional deprivation scores, the study applies a decile-based classification to assess targeting outcomes across regions and local government areas (LGAs). About 45.27% of beneficiary households were ineligible, indicating substantial inclusion errors that generated a monthly leakage of ₦550,030.50. In contrast, 64.05% of eligible households were excluded from the programme, resulting in a monthly under-coverage cost of ₦1,184,925.00. Exclusion errors were particularly pronounced in the least poor LGAs, where nearly four-fifths of poor and vulnerable households were omitted. The analysis highlights that the humanitarian and welfare costs of exclusion outweigh the fiscal benefits of inclusion, reaffirming earlier evidence from the global social protection literature. Although the HUP demonstrates success in reaching some poor households, improving the accuracy of proxy-means targeting and enhancing data validation mechanisms remain essential for reducing mistargeting and optimizing the social returns of cash transfer programmes in Nigeria. This study contributes to the social protection literature by empirically quantifying the magnitude and fiscal cost of inclusion and exclusion errors in Nigeria’s Household Upliftment Programme using a multidimensional deprivation framework and subnational comparative analysis across poverty-ranked LGAs in Osun and Oyo States.
VL  - 11
IS  - 1
ER  -

Copy | Download