Relation Between the Madden Julian Oscillation with Wet and Dry Spells During Belg Season Over Ethiopia

Mulualem Abera; Mussie Tizazu; Tadese Beyene

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12

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Relation Between the Madden Julian Oscillation with Wet and Dry Spells During Belg Season Over Ethiopia

Mulualem Abera, Mussie Tizazu, Tadese Beyene

Published in International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis (Volume 11, Issue 2)

Received: 6 January 2023 Accepted: 29 March 2023 Published: 10 May 2023

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Abstract

The main objective of this study is to explore seasonal impacts of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on tropospheric circulations affecting Ethiopia during Belg (March–May) rains and associated variability in precipitation. The data used daily rainfall, daily Madden-Julian (MJO) indices, daily Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and zonal and meridional wind data. The methods used for this study is Correlation and composite analyses are used to establish the association and the relationship between the MJO and rainfall over Ethiopia. A non-significant declining trend in annual rainfall across Ethiopia has been observed over the past three decades trend change per year over by -0.602 mm and P-Value 0.338. The mean length of wet spells 90 days over SNNPR and Southern Oromia Region, and with a least mean length of wet spell is 10 days over Afar, Tigray and western Amhara Region. The results reveals that there is a strong correlation between Ethiopian rainfall and MJO to the west of the region especially around Central and Southeastern parts of the Country. Out of phase (opposite) relationship between the west and the east is also indicating different rain causing mechanisms for the two regions. The rainfall amount also shown to depend on the configuration of the winds at lower and upper levels. Based on composite analysis extreme rainfall events shown to occur during preferential phases of the MJO. Phase 2 coincides with enhanced rainfall, high negative anomaly OLR values as well as westerly and easterly winds configuration at 200hpa and 850hpa while phase 5, 6 and 7 are associated with deficit of rainfall. The inclusion of other modes of variability such as Sea surface Temperatures (SSTs) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), as predictors recommended in predicting interaseasonal rainfall.

Published in	International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis (Volume 11, Issue 2)
DOI	10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12
Page(s)	37-56
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2023. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Ethiopia, Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), Rainfall, OLR, Wind, Wet and Dry Spell, Belg Rainy Season

References

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APA Style

Mulualem Abera, Mussie Tizazu, Tadese Beyene. (2023). Relation Between the Madden Julian Oscillation with Wet and Dry Spells During Belg Season Over Ethiopia. International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis, 11(2), 37-56. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12

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ACS Style

Mulualem Abera; Mussie Tizazu; Tadese Beyene. Relation Between the Madden Julian Oscillation with Wet and Dry Spells During Belg Season Over Ethiopia. Int. J. Environ. Monit. Anal. 2023, 11(2), 37-56. doi: 10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12

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AMA Style

Mulualem Abera, Mussie Tizazu, Tadese Beyene. Relation Between the Madden Julian Oscillation with Wet and Dry Spells During Belg Season Over Ethiopia. Int J Environ Monit Anal. 2023;11(2):37-56. doi: 10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12

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@article{10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12,
  author = {Mulualem Abera and Mussie Tizazu and Tadese Beyene},
  title = {Relation Between the Madden Julian Oscillation with Wet and Dry Spells During Belg Season Over Ethiopia},
  journal = {International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis},
  volume = {11},
  number = {2},
  pages = {37-56},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijema.20231102.12},
  abstract = {The main objective of this study is to explore seasonal impacts of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on tropospheric circulations affecting Ethiopia during Belg (March–May) rains and associated variability in precipitation. The data used daily rainfall, daily Madden-Julian (MJO) indices, daily Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and zonal and meridional wind data. The methods used for this study is Correlation and composite analyses are used to establish the association and the relationship between the MJO and rainfall over Ethiopia. A non-significant declining trend in annual rainfall across Ethiopia has been observed over the past three decades trend change per year over by -0.602 mm and P-Value 0.338. The mean length of wet spells 90 days over SNNPR and Southern Oromia Region, and with a least mean length of wet spell is 10 days over Afar, Tigray and western Amhara Region. The results reveals that there is a strong correlation between Ethiopian rainfall and MJO to the west of the region especially around Central and Southeastern parts of the Country. Out of phase (opposite) relationship between the west and the east is also indicating different rain causing mechanisms for the two regions. The rainfall amount also shown to depend on the configuration of the winds at lower and upper levels. Based on composite analysis extreme rainfall events shown to occur during preferential phases of the MJO. Phase 2 coincides with enhanced rainfall, high negative anomaly OLR values as well as westerly and easterly winds configuration at 200hpa and 850hpa while phase 5, 6 and 7 are associated with deficit of rainfall. The inclusion of other modes of variability such as Sea surface Temperatures (SSTs) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), as predictors recommended in predicting interaseasonal rainfall.},
 year = {2023}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Relation Between the Madden Julian Oscillation with Wet and Dry Spells During Belg Season Over Ethiopia
AU  - Mulualem Abera
AU  - Mussie Tizazu
AU  - Tadese Beyene
Y1  - 2023/05/10
PY  - 2023
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12
T2  - International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis
JF  - International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis
JO  - International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis
SP  - 37
EP  - 56
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-7667
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12
AB  - The main objective of this study is to explore seasonal impacts of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on tropospheric circulations affecting Ethiopia during Belg (March–May) rains and associated variability in precipitation. The data used daily rainfall, daily Madden-Julian (MJO) indices, daily Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and zonal and meridional wind data. The methods used for this study is Correlation and composite analyses are used to establish the association and the relationship between the MJO and rainfall over Ethiopia. A non-significant declining trend in annual rainfall across Ethiopia has been observed over the past three decades trend change per year over by -0.602 mm and P-Value 0.338. The mean length of wet spells 90 days over SNNPR and Southern Oromia Region, and with a least mean length of wet spell is 10 days over Afar, Tigray and western Amhara Region. The results reveals that there is a strong correlation between Ethiopian rainfall and MJO to the west of the region especially around Central and Southeastern parts of the Country. Out of phase (opposite) relationship between the west and the east is also indicating different rain causing mechanisms for the two regions. The rainfall amount also shown to depend on the configuration of the winds at lower and upper levels. Based on composite analysis extreme rainfall events shown to occur during preferential phases of the MJO. Phase 2 coincides with enhanced rainfall, high negative anomaly OLR values as well as westerly and easterly winds configuration at 200hpa and 850hpa while phase 5, 6 and 7 are associated with deficit of rainfall. The inclusion of other modes of variability such as Sea surface Temperatures (SSTs) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), as predictors recommended in predicting interaseasonal rainfall.
VL  - 11
IS  - 2
ER  -

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Author Information

Mulualem Abera

Meteorological Forecasting Early Waring Research Long-range Weather Forecasting and Drought Monitoring Desk, Ethiopia Meteorological Institute, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Mussie Tizazu

Meteorological Forecasting, Ethiopia Meteorological Institute, Hawassa Meteorological Service Centre, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Tadese Beyene

Meteorology Science Associate Researcher II, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

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Mulualem Abera, Mussie Tizazu, Tadese Beyene. (2023). Relation Between the Madden Julian Oscillation with Wet and Dry Spells During Belg Season Over Ethiopia. International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis, 11(2), 37-56. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12

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ACS Style

Mulualem Abera; Mussie Tizazu; Tadese Beyene. Relation Between the Madden Julian Oscillation with Wet and Dry Spells During Belg Season Over Ethiopia. Int. J. Environ. Monit. Anal. 2023, 11(2), 37-56. doi: 10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12

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AMA Style

Mulualem Abera, Mussie Tizazu, Tadese Beyene. Relation Between the Madden Julian Oscillation with Wet and Dry Spells During Belg Season Over Ethiopia. Int J Environ Monit Anal. 2023;11(2):37-56. doi: 10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12

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@article{10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12,
  author = {Mulualem Abera and Mussie Tizazu and Tadese Beyene},
  title = {Relation Between the Madden Julian Oscillation with Wet and Dry Spells During Belg Season Over Ethiopia},
  journal = {International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis},
  volume = {11},
  number = {2},
  pages = {37-56},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijema.20231102.12},
  abstract = {The main objective of this study is to explore seasonal impacts of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on tropospheric circulations affecting Ethiopia during Belg (March–May) rains and associated variability in precipitation. The data used daily rainfall, daily Madden-Julian (MJO) indices, daily Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and zonal and meridional wind data. The methods used for this study is Correlation and composite analyses are used to establish the association and the relationship between the MJO and rainfall over Ethiopia. A non-significant declining trend in annual rainfall across Ethiopia has been observed over the past three decades trend change per year over by -0.602 mm and P-Value 0.338. The mean length of wet spells 90 days over SNNPR and Southern Oromia Region, and with a least mean length of wet spell is 10 days over Afar, Tigray and western Amhara Region. The results reveals that there is a strong correlation between Ethiopian rainfall and MJO to the west of the region especially around Central and Southeastern parts of the Country. Out of phase (opposite) relationship between the west and the east is also indicating different rain causing mechanisms for the two regions. The rainfall amount also shown to depend on the configuration of the winds at lower and upper levels. Based on composite analysis extreme rainfall events shown to occur during preferential phases of the MJO. Phase 2 coincides with enhanced rainfall, high negative anomaly OLR values as well as westerly and easterly winds configuration at 200hpa and 850hpa while phase 5, 6 and 7 are associated with deficit of rainfall. The inclusion of other modes of variability such as Sea surface Temperatures (SSTs) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), as predictors recommended in predicting interaseasonal rainfall.},
 year = {2023}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Relation Between the Madden Julian Oscillation with Wet and Dry Spells During Belg Season Over Ethiopia
AU  - Mulualem Abera
AU  - Mussie Tizazu
AU  - Tadese Beyene
Y1  - 2023/05/10
PY  - 2023
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12
T2  - International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis
JF  - International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis
JO  - International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis
SP  - 37
EP  - 56
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-7667
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20231102.12
AB  - The main objective of this study is to explore seasonal impacts of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on tropospheric circulations affecting Ethiopia during Belg (March–May) rains and associated variability in precipitation. The data used daily rainfall, daily Madden-Julian (MJO) indices, daily Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and zonal and meridional wind data. The methods used for this study is Correlation and composite analyses are used to establish the association and the relationship between the MJO and rainfall over Ethiopia. A non-significant declining trend in annual rainfall across Ethiopia has been observed over the past three decades trend change per year over by -0.602 mm and P-Value 0.338. The mean length of wet spells 90 days over SNNPR and Southern Oromia Region, and with a least mean length of wet spell is 10 days over Afar, Tigray and western Amhara Region. The results reveals that there is a strong correlation between Ethiopian rainfall and MJO to the west of the region especially around Central and Southeastern parts of the Country. Out of phase (opposite) relationship between the west and the east is also indicating different rain causing mechanisms for the two regions. The rainfall amount also shown to depend on the configuration of the winds at lower and upper levels. Based on composite analysis extreme rainfall events shown to occur during preferential phases of the MJO. Phase 2 coincides with enhanced rainfall, high negative anomaly OLR values as well as westerly and easterly winds configuration at 200hpa and 850hpa while phase 5, 6 and 7 are associated with deficit of rainfall. The inclusion of other modes of variability such as Sea surface Temperatures (SSTs) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), as predictors recommended in predicting interaseasonal rainfall.
VL  - 11
IS  - 2
ER  -

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