A Natural Sequence of Socio-Technical Transition Pathways

Mohammed Hussaini; Miklas Scholz

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ijse.20210502.14

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A Natural Sequence of Socio-Technical Transition Pathways

Mohammed Hussaini, Miklas Scholz

Published in International Journal of Systems Engineering (Volume 5, Issue 2)

Received: 19 November 2021 Accepted: 7 December 2021 Published: 24 December 2021

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Abstract

This paper provides a simplified analysis of possible sequences of transition pathways to deepen understanding of transition scenarios. The pathways exhibit a ranking of succession in which the transformation pathway (T) is first in the sequence in terms of both landscape pressure (P_L) and niche maturity levels (γ_n). The next pathway along the sequence in terms of the two variables of P_L and γ_n is the reconfiguration pathway (R). Beyond R, the substitution pathway (S) is significantly higher in terms of γ_n whereas the de-alignment/re-alignment pathway (D/R) is significantly higher in terms of P_L. The next pathway on the sequence among the two pathways, namely S and D/R depends on the difference in the rates of change of P_L (i.e. P_L/t) and γ_n (i.e. γ_n/t) and the P_L difference of D/R to R (P_L.D/R – P_L.R) and the γ_n difference of S to R (γ_n.S – γ_n.R). A higher P_L/t to γ_n/t and/or a shorter P_L.D/R – P_L.R to γ_n.S – γ_n.R support the sequence T-R-D/R-S whereas a lower P_L/t to γ_n/t and/or a larger P_L.D/R – P_L.R to γ_n.S – γ_n.R favours T-R-S-D/R sequence. In the case of equivalent P_L.D/R – P_L.R and γ_n.S – γ_n.R, and also P_L/t and γ_n/t, then beyond R, a fifth scenario (X) which combines part characteristics of both D/R and S has been discussed. In view of deviations from this assumption in theory, changes in P_L and γ_n (and hence X) might not be linear and is determined by the slope δP_L/δγ_n while the status of X with respect to D/R and S at any time depends on its parametric proximity with respect to D/R and S at that time. Moreover, P_L/t in turn depends on the pathway history of a transition whereas niche maturity γ_n is affected by transition policy action which improves the overall performance-cost ratios of niche (γ_n) and regime (γ_r) technologies, γ_n/γ_r. However, in all the case, there is the need to establish accurate measurements for P_L and γ_n and for the pathways to enhance the certainty of the pathway sequence.

Published in	International Journal of Systems Engineering (Volume 5, Issue 2)
DOI	10.11648/j.ijse.20210502.14
Page(s)	79-89
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Graphical Presentation, Landscape Pressure, Multi-level Perspective, Niche Technology, Pathway Sequence, Regime

References

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Mohammed Hussaini, Miklas Scholz. (2021). A Natural Sequence of Socio-Technical Transition Pathways. International Journal of Systems Engineering, 5(2), 79-89. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijse.20210502.14

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Mohammed Hussaini; Miklas Scholz. A Natural Sequence of Socio-Technical Transition Pathways. Int. J. Syst. Eng. 2021, 5(2), 79-89. doi: 10.11648/j.ijse.20210502.14

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Mohammed Hussaini, Miklas Scholz. A Natural Sequence of Socio-Technical Transition Pathways. Int J Syst Eng. 2021;5(2):79-89. doi: 10.11648/j.ijse.20210502.14

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@article{10.11648/j.ijse.20210502.14,
  author = {Mohammed Hussaini and Miklas Scholz},
  title = {A Natural Sequence of Socio-Technical Transition Pathways},
  journal = {International Journal of Systems Engineering},
  volume = {5},
  number = {2},
  pages = {79-89},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijse.20210502.14},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijse.20210502.14},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijse.20210502.14},
  abstract = {This paper provides a simplified analysis of possible sequences of transition pathways to deepen understanding of transition scenarios. The pathways exhibit a ranking of succession in which the transformation pathway (T) is first in the sequence in terms of both landscape pressure (PL) and niche maturity levels (γn). The next pathway along the sequence in terms of the two variables of PL and γn is the reconfiguration pathway (R). Beyond R, the substitution pathway (S) is significantly higher in terms of γn whereas the de-alignment/re-alignment pathway (D/R) is significantly higher in terms of PL. The next pathway on the sequence among the two pathways, namely S and D/R depends on the difference in the rates of change of PL (i.e. PL/t) and γn (i.e. γn/t) and the PL difference of D/R to R (PL.D/R – PL.R) and the γn difference of S to R (γn.S – γn.R). A higher PL/t to γn/t and/or a shorter PL.D/R – PL.R to γn.S – γn.R support the sequence T-R-D/R-S whereas a lower PL/t to γn/t and/or a larger PL.D/R – PL.R to γn.S – γn.R favours T-R-S-D/R sequence. In the case of equivalent PL.D/R – PL.R and γn.S – γn.R, and also PL/t and γn/t, then beyond R, a fifth scenario (X) which combines part characteristics of both D/R and S has been discussed. In view of deviations from this assumption in theory, changes in PL and γn (and hence X) might not be linear and is determined by the slope δPL/δγn while the status of X with respect to D/R and S at any time depends on its parametric proximity with respect to D/R and S at that time. Moreover, PL/t in turn depends on the pathway history of a transition whereas niche maturity γn is affected by transition policy action which improves the overall performance-cost ratios of niche (γn) and regime (γr) technologies, γn/γr. However, in all the case, there is the need to establish accurate measurements for PL and γn and for the pathways to enhance the certainty of the pathway sequence.},
 year = {2021}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - A Natural Sequence of Socio-Technical Transition Pathways
AU  - Mohammed Hussaini
AU  - Miklas Scholz
Y1  - 2021/12/24
PY  - 2021
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijse.20210502.14
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijse.20210502.14
T2  - International Journal of Systems Engineering
JF  - International Journal of Systems Engineering
JO  - International Journal of Systems Engineering
SP  - 79
EP  - 89
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2640-4230
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijse.20210502.14
AB  - This paper provides a simplified analysis of possible sequences of transition pathways to deepen understanding of transition scenarios. The pathways exhibit a ranking of succession in which the transformation pathway (T) is first in the sequence in terms of both landscape pressure (PL) and niche maturity levels (γn). The next pathway along the sequence in terms of the two variables of PL and γn is the reconfiguration pathway (R). Beyond R, the substitution pathway (S) is significantly higher in terms of γn whereas the de-alignment/re-alignment pathway (D/R) is significantly higher in terms of PL. The next pathway on the sequence among the two pathways, namely S and D/R depends on the difference in the rates of change of PL (i.e. PL/t) and γn (i.e. γn/t) and the PL difference of D/R to R (PL.D/R – PL.R) and the γn difference of S to R (γn.S – γn.R). A higher PL/t to γn/t and/or a shorter PL.D/R – PL.R to γn.S – γn.R support the sequence T-R-D/R-S whereas a lower PL/t to γn/t and/or a larger PL.D/R – PL.R to γn.S – γn.R favours T-R-S-D/R sequence. In the case of equivalent PL.D/R – PL.R and γn.S – γn.R, and also PL/t and γn/t, then beyond R, a fifth scenario (X) which combines part characteristics of both D/R and S has been discussed. In view of deviations from this assumption in theory, changes in PL and γn (and hence X) might not be linear and is determined by the slope δPL/δγn while the status of X with respect to D/R and S at any time depends on its parametric proximity with respect to D/R and S at that time. Moreover, PL/t in turn depends on the pathway history of a transition whereas niche maturity γn is affected by transition policy action which improves the overall performance-cost ratios of niche (γn) and regime (γr) technologies, γn/γr. However, in all the case, there is the need to establish accurate measurements for PL and γn and for the pathways to enhance the certainty of the pathway sequence.
VL  - 5
IS  - 2
ER  -

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Author Information

Mohammed Hussaini

Civil & Water Resources Engineering Department, University of Maiduguri, Maiduguri, Nigeria
Miklas Scholz

Division of Water Resources Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Lund University, Lund, Sweden

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APA Style

Mohammed Hussaini, Miklas Scholz. (2021). A Natural Sequence of Socio-Technical Transition Pathways. International Journal of Systems Engineering, 5(2), 79-89. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijse.20210502.14

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ACS Style

Mohammed Hussaini; Miklas Scholz. A Natural Sequence of Socio-Technical Transition Pathways. Int. J. Syst. Eng. 2021, 5(2), 79-89. doi: 10.11648/j.ijse.20210502.14

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AMA Style

Mohammed Hussaini, Miklas Scholz. A Natural Sequence of Socio-Technical Transition Pathways. Int J Syst Eng. 2021;5(2):79-89. doi: 10.11648/j.ijse.20210502.14

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ijse.20210502.14,
  author = {Mohammed Hussaini and Miklas Scholz},
  title = {A Natural Sequence of Socio-Technical Transition Pathways},
  journal = {International Journal of Systems Engineering},
  volume = {5},
  number = {2},
  pages = {79-89},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijse.20210502.14},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijse.20210502.14},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijse.20210502.14},
  abstract = {This paper provides a simplified analysis of possible sequences of transition pathways to deepen understanding of transition scenarios. The pathways exhibit a ranking of succession in which the transformation pathway (T) is first in the sequence in terms of both landscape pressure (PL) and niche maturity levels (γn). The next pathway along the sequence in terms of the two variables of PL and γn is the reconfiguration pathway (R). Beyond R, the substitution pathway (S) is significantly higher in terms of γn whereas the de-alignment/re-alignment pathway (D/R) is significantly higher in terms of PL. The next pathway on the sequence among the two pathways, namely S and D/R depends on the difference in the rates of change of PL (i.e. PL/t) and γn (i.e. γn/t) and the PL difference of D/R to R (PL.D/R – PL.R) and the γn difference of S to R (γn.S – γn.R). A higher PL/t to γn/t and/or a shorter PL.D/R – PL.R to γn.S – γn.R support the sequence T-R-D/R-S whereas a lower PL/t to γn/t and/or a larger PL.D/R – PL.R to γn.S – γn.R favours T-R-S-D/R sequence. In the case of equivalent PL.D/R – PL.R and γn.S – γn.R, and also PL/t and γn/t, then beyond R, a fifth scenario (X) which combines part characteristics of both D/R and S has been discussed. In view of deviations from this assumption in theory, changes in PL and γn (and hence X) might not be linear and is determined by the slope δPL/δγn while the status of X with respect to D/R and S at any time depends on its parametric proximity with respect to D/R and S at that time. Moreover, PL/t in turn depends on the pathway history of a transition whereas niche maturity γn is affected by transition policy action which improves the overall performance-cost ratios of niche (γn) and regime (γr) technologies, γn/γr. However, in all the case, there is the need to establish accurate measurements for PL and γn and for the pathways to enhance the certainty of the pathway sequence.},
 year = {2021}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - A Natural Sequence of Socio-Technical Transition Pathways
AU  - Mohammed Hussaini
AU  - Miklas Scholz
Y1  - 2021/12/24
PY  - 2021
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijse.20210502.14
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijse.20210502.14
T2  - International Journal of Systems Engineering
JF  - International Journal of Systems Engineering
JO  - International Journal of Systems Engineering
SP  - 79
EP  - 89
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2640-4230
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijse.20210502.14
AB  - This paper provides a simplified analysis of possible sequences of transition pathways to deepen understanding of transition scenarios. The pathways exhibit a ranking of succession in which the transformation pathway (T) is first in the sequence in terms of both landscape pressure (PL) and niche maturity levels (γn). The next pathway along the sequence in terms of the two variables of PL and γn is the reconfiguration pathway (R). Beyond R, the substitution pathway (S) is significantly higher in terms of γn whereas the de-alignment/re-alignment pathway (D/R) is significantly higher in terms of PL. The next pathway on the sequence among the two pathways, namely S and D/R depends on the difference in the rates of change of PL (i.e. PL/t) and γn (i.e. γn/t) and the PL difference of D/R to R (PL.D/R – PL.R) and the γn difference of S to R (γn.S – γn.R). A higher PL/t to γn/t and/or a shorter PL.D/R – PL.R to γn.S – γn.R support the sequence T-R-D/R-S whereas a lower PL/t to γn/t and/or a larger PL.D/R – PL.R to γn.S – γn.R favours T-R-S-D/R sequence. In the case of equivalent PL.D/R – PL.R and γn.S – γn.R, and also PL/t and γn/t, then beyond R, a fifth scenario (X) which combines part characteristics of both D/R and S has been discussed. In view of deviations from this assumption in theory, changes in PL and γn (and hence X) might not be linear and is determined by the slope δPL/δγn while the status of X with respect to D/R and S at any time depends on its parametric proximity with respect to D/R and S at that time. Moreover, PL/t in turn depends on the pathway history of a transition whereas niche maturity γn is affected by transition policy action which improves the overall performance-cost ratios of niche (γn) and regime (γr) technologies, γn/γr. However, in all the case, there is the need to establish accurate measurements for PL and γn and for the pathways to enhance the certainty of the pathway sequence.
VL  - 5
IS  - 2
ER  -

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