International Journal of Infectious Diseases and Therapy

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Estimating the Vaccine Effectiveness Against Serotype 3 for the 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine: A Dynamic Modeling Approach

Received: Oct. 17, 2019    Accepted: Nov. 14, 2019    Published: Dec. 06, 2019
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Abstract

Background: The 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) is the only PCV licensed to protect against serotype 3 in children. However, conflicting estimates exist of PCV13’s direct and indirect protection vaccine effectiveness (VE) for serotype 3. Objective: Our study examined the of PCV13 for serotype 3 using different assumptions for PCV13 direct and indirect VE to model trends in serotype 3 invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and comparing these to observed data from the United Kingdom (UK). Methods: A dynamic transmission model of the spread of pneumococcal carriage and development of IPD was used to fit pre-PCV13–modeled IPD incidence with observed data. To allow for comparison across scenarios, post-PCV13–modeled IPD incidence was fit to observed data using assumptions for three different scenarios: (scenario 1) serotype 3 as a nonvaccine serotype, (scenario 2) VE against serotype 3 IPD of 63.5% based on a recent meta-analysis, and (scenario 3) a model-estimated VE against serotype 3. Results: Post-PCV13 introduction, modeled 2017 and average annual serotype 3 IPD incidence were within 20% and 59% of observed values for scenarios 2 and 3, respectively, but deviated by >100% for scenario 1. For adults aged ≥65 years, modeled 2017 IPD incidence in scenario 1 differed from observed data by 16% versus roughly 8% in scenarios 2 and 3. Conclusions: Observed data do not support a scenario of no serotype 3 VE, but rather a combination of direct protection among vaccinated children and a lower level of indirect protection among older adults. Policymakers should consider transmission dynamics when examining VE against covered serotypes.

DOI 10.11648/j.ijidt.20190404.12
Published in International Journal of Infectious Diseases and Therapy ( Volume 4, Issue 4, December 2019 )
Page(s) 56-66
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Pneumococcal Pneumonia, Vaccine, Dynamic Transmission Model, Invasive Pneumococcal Disease

References
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Cite This Article
  • APA Style

    Aaron Lucas, Michele Wilson, Heather L. Sings, Sarah Pugh, Dylan Jones, et al. (2019). Estimating the Vaccine Effectiveness Against Serotype 3 for the 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine: A Dynamic Modeling Approach. International Journal of Infectious Diseases and Therapy, 4(4), 56-66. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijidt.20190404.12

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    ACS Style

    Aaron Lucas; Michele Wilson; Heather L. Sings; Sarah Pugh; Dylan Jones, et al. Estimating the Vaccine Effectiveness Against Serotype 3 for the 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine: A Dynamic Modeling Approach. Int. J. Infect. Dis. Ther. 2019, 4(4), 56-66. doi: 10.11648/j.ijidt.20190404.12

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    AMA Style

    Aaron Lucas, Michele Wilson, Heather L. Sings, Sarah Pugh, Dylan Jones, et al. Estimating the Vaccine Effectiveness Against Serotype 3 for the 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine: A Dynamic Modeling Approach. Int J Infect Dis Ther. 2019;4(4):56-66. doi: 10.11648/j.ijidt.20190404.12

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  • @article{10.11648/j.ijidt.20190404.12,
      author = {Aaron Lucas and Michele Wilson and Heather L. Sings and Sarah Pugh and Dylan Jones and Raymond Farkouh and Bradford Gessner and Matthew Wasserman},
      title = {Estimating the Vaccine Effectiveness Against Serotype 3 for the 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine: A Dynamic Modeling Approach},
      journal = {International Journal of Infectious Diseases and Therapy},
      volume = {4},
      number = {4},
      pages = {56-66},
      doi = {10.11648/j.ijidt.20190404.12},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijidt.20190404.12},
      eprint = {https://download.sciencepg.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijidt.20190404.12},
      abstract = {Background: The 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) is the only PCV licensed to protect against serotype 3 in children. However, conflicting estimates exist of PCV13’s direct and indirect protection vaccine effectiveness (VE) for serotype 3. Objective: Our study examined the of PCV13 for serotype 3 using different assumptions for PCV13 direct and indirect VE to model trends in serotype 3 invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and comparing these to observed data from the United Kingdom (UK). Methods: A dynamic transmission model of the spread of pneumococcal carriage and development of IPD was used to fit pre-PCV13–modeled IPD incidence with observed data. To allow for comparison across scenarios, post-PCV13–modeled IPD incidence was fit to observed data using assumptions for three different scenarios: (scenario 1) serotype 3 as a nonvaccine serotype, (scenario 2) VE against serotype 3 IPD of 63.5% based on a recent meta-analysis, and (scenario 3) a model-estimated VE against serotype 3. Results: Post-PCV13 introduction, modeled 2017 and average annual serotype 3 IPD incidence were within 20% and 59% of observed values for scenarios 2 and 3, respectively, but deviated by >100% for scenario 1. For adults aged ≥65 years, modeled 2017 IPD incidence in scenario 1 differed from observed data by 16% versus roughly 8% in scenarios 2 and 3. Conclusions: Observed data do not support a scenario of no serotype 3 VE, but rather a combination of direct protection among vaccinated children and a lower level of indirect protection among older adults. Policymakers should consider transmission dynamics when examining VE against covered serotypes.},
     year = {2019}
    }
    

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  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - Estimating the Vaccine Effectiveness Against Serotype 3 for the 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine: A Dynamic Modeling Approach
    AU  - Aaron Lucas
    AU  - Michele Wilson
    AU  - Heather L. Sings
    AU  - Sarah Pugh
    AU  - Dylan Jones
    AU  - Raymond Farkouh
    AU  - Bradford Gessner
    AU  - Matthew Wasserman
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    DO  - 10.11648/j.ijidt.20190404.12
    T2  - International Journal of Infectious Diseases and Therapy
    JF  - International Journal of Infectious Diseases and Therapy
    JO  - International Journal of Infectious Diseases and Therapy
    SP  - 56
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    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2578-966X
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijidt.20190404.12
    AB  - Background: The 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) is the only PCV licensed to protect against serotype 3 in children. However, conflicting estimates exist of PCV13’s direct and indirect protection vaccine effectiveness (VE) for serotype 3. Objective: Our study examined the of PCV13 for serotype 3 using different assumptions for PCV13 direct and indirect VE to model trends in serotype 3 invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and comparing these to observed data from the United Kingdom (UK). Methods: A dynamic transmission model of the spread of pneumococcal carriage and development of IPD was used to fit pre-PCV13–modeled IPD incidence with observed data. To allow for comparison across scenarios, post-PCV13–modeled IPD incidence was fit to observed data using assumptions for three different scenarios: (scenario 1) serotype 3 as a nonvaccine serotype, (scenario 2) VE against serotype 3 IPD of 63.5% based on a recent meta-analysis, and (scenario 3) a model-estimated VE against serotype 3. Results: Post-PCV13 introduction, modeled 2017 and average annual serotype 3 IPD incidence were within 20% and 59% of observed values for scenarios 2 and 3, respectively, but deviated by >100% for scenario 1. For adults aged ≥65 years, modeled 2017 IPD incidence in scenario 1 differed from observed data by 16% versus roughly 8% in scenarios 2 and 3. Conclusions: Observed data do not support a scenario of no serotype 3 VE, but rather a combination of direct protection among vaccinated children and a lower level of indirect protection among older adults. Policymakers should consider transmission dynamics when examining VE against covered serotypes.
    VL  - 4
    IS  - 4
    ER  - 

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Author Information
  • RTI Health Solutions, Research Triangle Park, United States

  • RTI Health Solutions, Research Triangle Park, United States

  • Pfizer Inc., Collegeville, United States

  • Pfizer Inc., Collegeville, United States

  • Pfizer Ltd. Walton Oaks, United Kingdom

  • Pfizer Inc., Collegeville, United States

  • Pfizer Inc., Collegeville, United States

  • Pfizer Inc., New York, United States

  • Section