End hunger, achieve food security and improve nutrition is at the heart of the sustainable development goals. At the same time, climate change is already impacting agriculture and making the challenge even more difficult. In many parts of the world, much of the year-to-year variation in climate is traced to the El Nino episode. This paper uses El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index to examine the effect of El Nino shock on agricultural GDP of Ethiopia. The paper employed Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model in analysing 26 years time series data. Before regressing the data, activities such as lag selection, unit root test, Johansen Cointegration test, and diagnostics test were done. The result of the study shows that an incidence of El Nino phenomena truncate agricultural GDP of Ethiopia by 13.59 percent. The result is statistically significant at less than 5 percent significant level. And also 92.66 percent of the total variation in the model is explained by the explanatory variables. Thus the nation should work hard in adoption of water harvesting technology, irrigation, drought resistance and perennial crops to mitigate the consequence of El Nino shock.
| Published in | American Journal of Water Science and Engineering (Volume 3, Issue 4) |
| DOI | 10.11648/j.ajwse.20170304.11 |
| Page(s) | 45-49 |
| Creative Commons |
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited. |
| Copyright |
Copyright © The Author(s), 2017. Published by Science Publishing Group |
El Nino, Ethiopia, Agriculture, GDP, VAR
| [1] | EC, 2016. Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection, ECHO Factsheet – Ethiopia. |
| [2] | EO(Ethiopia Overview), 2017. Ethiopian Goverment Portal found in http://www.ethiopia.gov.et |
| [3] | FAO, 2016. Climate change and food security: Risks and Responses. |
| [4] | Gujarati, 2004. Basic Econometrics, Fourth Edition, The McGraw−Hill Companies. |
| [5] | Maryam Abdolrahimi, 2016. The Effect of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on World Cereal Production, A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of requirements for the degree of Master of Philosophy in the Faculty of Agriculture and Environment at The University of Sydney. |
| [6] | National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). 2017. Earth System Research Laboratory, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Available at http:// https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/ |
| [7] | NBE, 2016, National Bank of Ethiopia Annual Report, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. |
| [8] | Nelson Thornes, 2008. Impacts of El Niño and La Niña, Geofile Online. |
| [9] | Richard M. Adams, Chi-Chung Chen, Bruce A. Mc Carl, and Rodney F. Weiher, 2010. The economic consequences of ENSO events for agriculture, CLIMATERESEARCH Clim Res. Vol. 13: 165–172, 1999. |
| [10] | The World Bank, Data. Available at http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS |
| [11] | World Food Programme, 2016. WFP El Niño 2015-2016 Preparedness and Response, Situation Report #2. |
APA Style
Melkamu Belina Negeri. (2017). The Effects of El Nino on Agricultural GDP of Ethiopia. American Journal of Water Science and Engineering, 3(4), 45-49. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajwse.20170304.11
ACS Style
Melkamu Belina Negeri. The Effects of El Nino on Agricultural GDP of Ethiopia. Am. J. Water Sci. Eng. 2017, 3(4), 45-49. doi: 10.11648/j.ajwse.20170304.11
AMA Style
Melkamu Belina Negeri. The Effects of El Nino on Agricultural GDP of Ethiopia. Am J Water Sci Eng. 2017;3(4):45-49. doi: 10.11648/j.ajwse.20170304.11
Share This Article
Twitter
Linked In
Facebook
Copy
Download@article{10.11648/j.ajwse.20170304.11,
author = {Melkamu Belina Negeri},
title = {The Effects of El Nino on Agricultural GDP of Ethiopia},
journal = {American Journal of Water Science and Engineering},
volume = {3},
number = {4},
pages = {45-49},
doi = {10.11648/j.ajwse.20170304.11},
url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajwse.20170304.11},
eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajwse.20170304.11},
abstract = {End hunger, achieve food security and improve nutrition is at the heart of the sustainable development goals. At the same time, climate change is already impacting agriculture and making the challenge even more difficult. In many parts of the world, much of the year-to-year variation in climate is traced to the El Nino episode. This paper uses El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index to examine the effect of El Nino shock on agricultural GDP of Ethiopia. The paper employed Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model in analysing 26 years time series data. Before regressing the data, activities such as lag selection, unit root test, Johansen Cointegration test, and diagnostics test were done. The result of the study shows that an incidence of El Nino phenomena truncate agricultural GDP of Ethiopia by 13.59 percent. The result is statistically significant at less than 5 percent significant level. And also 92.66 percent of the total variation in the model is explained by the explanatory variables. Thus the nation should work hard in adoption of water harvesting technology, irrigation, drought resistance and perennial crops to mitigate the consequence of El Nino shock.},
year = {2017}
}
TY - JOUR T1 - The Effects of El Nino on Agricultural GDP of Ethiopia AU - Melkamu Belina Negeri Y1 - 2017/10/10 PY - 2017 N1 - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajwse.20170304.11 DO - 10.11648/j.ajwse.20170304.11 T2 - American Journal of Water Science and Engineering JF - American Journal of Water Science and Engineering JO - American Journal of Water Science and Engineering SP - 45 EP - 49 PB - Science Publishing Group SN - 2575-1875 UR - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajwse.20170304.11 AB - End hunger, achieve food security and improve nutrition is at the heart of the sustainable development goals. At the same time, climate change is already impacting agriculture and making the challenge even more difficult. In many parts of the world, much of the year-to-year variation in climate is traced to the El Nino episode. This paper uses El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index to examine the effect of El Nino shock on agricultural GDP of Ethiopia. The paper employed Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model in analysing 26 years time series data. Before regressing the data, activities such as lag selection, unit root test, Johansen Cointegration test, and diagnostics test were done. The result of the study shows that an incidence of El Nino phenomena truncate agricultural GDP of Ethiopia by 13.59 percent. The result is statistically significant at less than 5 percent significant level. And also 92.66 percent of the total variation in the model is explained by the explanatory variables. Thus the nation should work hard in adoption of water harvesting technology, irrigation, drought resistance and perennial crops to mitigate the consequence of El Nino shock. VL - 3 IS - 4 ER -
Information
Email: