Ethiopian Seasonal Rainfall Variability and Prediction Using Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA)

Kassa Fekadu

doi:doi:10.11648/j.earth.20150403.14

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Ethiopian Seasonal Rainfall Variability and Prediction Using Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA)

Kassa Fekadu

Published in Earth Sciences (Volume 4, Issue 3)

Received: 9 April 2015 Accepted: 11 May 2015 Published: 6 June 2015

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Abstract

Because Ethiopia’s economy is mainly dependent on rain-fed agriculture, the failure or the goodness of seasonal rainfall is incredibly decisive the country’s socio economic functioning- in particular, food production. As a result, the reliable seasonal rainfall prediction would have several advantages for agricultural activities, water management, health (Malaria control) and drought related disaster mitigation. In this paper an attempt is made to study the variability and predictability of two Ethiopian rainy seasons using statistical methods. Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) applied to analyze and predict seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia using global sea surface temperature (SST) predictor data and historical monthly total Ethiopian rainfall and merged both satellite and rain gauge rainfall data predictand data. It is found that in general, ENSO is the main source of predictive skill for Ethiopian seasonal rainfall. This is the case for both the Belg (small rainy season) from February to May and Kiremt (main rainy season) from June to September, during which other, more regional SST in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean also contribute. The objective approach provided by the CAA approach resulted in higher mean skill than the more subjective methods used traditionally by the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency (NMA) since the late 1980’s.

Published in	Earth Sciences (Volume 4, Issue 3)
DOI	10.11648/j.earth.20150403.14
Page(s)	112-119
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2015. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

ENSO, El Nino, La Nina, SST, Belg (Feb-May), Kiremt (Jun-Sep)

References

[1]	Kassahun, B., 1987: Weather systems over Ethiopia. Proc. First Tech. Conf. on MeteorologicalResearch in Eastern and Southern Africa, Nairobi, Kenya, UCAR, 53-57.
[2]	Bekele,F., 1992: Ethiopia Climate and Seasons.Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
[3]	Korecha, D., and Barnston, A. G., 2007: Predictability of June–September Rainfall in Ethiopia. Mon.Weather Rev.,135, 625-650.
[4]	Segele, Z. T., and P. J. Lamb 2005: Characterization and variability of Kiremt rainy season overEthiopia. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 89, 153-180.
[5]	Gissila, T., E. Black, D. I. F. Grimes, and J. M. Slingo, 2004: Seasonal forecasting of the Ethiopian summer rains. Int. J. Climatol., 24, 1345–1358.
[6]	Whiteman, C. David (2000). Mountain Meteorology: Fundamentals and Applications. OxfordUniversity Press. ISBN 0-19-513271-8.
[7]	Zebiak, S.E., and M.A. Cane, 1987: A Model El Ni & ntilde–Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 2262–2278.
[8]	Degefu, W., 1987: Some aspects of meteorological drought in Ethiopia. Drought and Hunger in Ethiopia, 23-36.
[9]	Tadesse T., 1994, summer monsoon seasonal rain fall of Ethiopia in ENSO episodic years
[10]	Diro, G., Black, E., and Grimes, D. (2008). Seasonal forecasting of Ethiopian spring rains. Meteorological Applications, 15, 73-83.
[11]	Dinku, T., Asefa, K., Hailemariam, K., Grimes, D.,and Connor, S., 2011: Improving availability, access and use of climate information. Bull. World Meteorological Organization 60 (2).

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APA Style

Kassa Fekadu. (2015). Ethiopian Seasonal Rainfall Variability and Prediction Using Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA). Earth Sciences, 4(3), 112-119. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20150403.14

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ACS Style

Kassa Fekadu. Ethiopian Seasonal Rainfall Variability and Prediction Using Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA). Earth Sci. 2015, 4(3), 112-119. doi: 10.11648/j.earth.20150403.14

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AMA Style

Kassa Fekadu. Ethiopian Seasonal Rainfall Variability and Prediction Using Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA). Earth Sci. 2015;4(3):112-119. doi: 10.11648/j.earth.20150403.14

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@article{10.11648/j.earth.20150403.14,
  author = {Kassa Fekadu},
  title = {Ethiopian Seasonal Rainfall Variability and Prediction Using Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA)},
  journal = {Earth Sciences},
  volume = {4},
  number = {3},
  pages = {112-119},
  doi = {10.11648/j.earth.20150403.14},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20150403.14},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.earth.20150403.14},
  abstract = {Because Ethiopia’s economy is mainly dependent on rain-fed agriculture, the failure or the goodness of seasonal rainfall is incredibly decisive the country’s socio economic functioning- in particular, food production. As a result, the reliable seasonal rainfall prediction would have several advantages for agricultural activities, water management, health (Malaria control) and drought related disaster mitigation. In this paper an attempt is made to study the variability and predictability of two Ethiopian rainy seasons using statistical methods. Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) applied to analyze and predict seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia using global sea surface temperature (SST) predictor data and historical monthly total Ethiopian rainfall and merged both satellite and rain gauge rainfall data predictand data. It is found that in general, ENSO is the main source of predictive skill for Ethiopian seasonal rainfall. This is the case for both the Belg (small rainy season) from February to May and Kiremt (main rainy season) from June to September, during which other, more regional SST in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean also contribute. The objective approach provided by the CAA approach resulted in higher mean skill than the more subjective methods used traditionally by the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency (NMA) since the late 1980’s.},
 year = {2015}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Ethiopian Seasonal Rainfall Variability and Prediction Using Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA)
AU  - Kassa Fekadu
Y1  - 2015/06/06
PY  - 2015
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20150403.14
DO  - 10.11648/j.earth.20150403.14
T2  - Earth Sciences
JF  - Earth Sciences
JO  - Earth Sciences
SP  - 112
EP  - 119
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-5982
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20150403.14
AB  - Because Ethiopia’s economy is mainly dependent on rain-fed agriculture, the failure or the goodness of seasonal rainfall is incredibly decisive the country’s socio economic functioning- in particular, food production. As a result, the reliable seasonal rainfall prediction would have several advantages for agricultural activities, water management, health (Malaria control) and drought related disaster mitigation. In this paper an attempt is made to study the variability and predictability of two Ethiopian rainy seasons using statistical methods. Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) applied to analyze and predict seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia using global sea surface temperature (SST) predictor data and historical monthly total Ethiopian rainfall and merged both satellite and rain gauge rainfall data predictand data. It is found that in general, ENSO is the main source of predictive skill for Ethiopian seasonal rainfall. This is the case for both the Belg (small rainy season) from February to May and Kiremt (main rainy season) from June to September, during which other, more regional SST in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean also contribute. The objective approach provided by the CAA approach resulted in higher mean skill than the more subjective methods used traditionally by the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency (NMA) since the late 1980’s.
VL  - 4
IS  - 3
ER  -

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Author Information

Kassa Fekadu

Ethiopian Meteorological Society, Meteorological Education and Training Directorate, National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

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Plain Text BibTeX RIS

APA Style

Kassa Fekadu. (2015). Ethiopian Seasonal Rainfall Variability and Prediction Using Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA). Earth Sciences, 4(3), 112-119. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20150403.14

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ACS Style

Kassa Fekadu. Ethiopian Seasonal Rainfall Variability and Prediction Using Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA). Earth Sci. 2015, 4(3), 112-119. doi: 10.11648/j.earth.20150403.14

Copy | Download

AMA Style

Kassa Fekadu. Ethiopian Seasonal Rainfall Variability and Prediction Using Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA). Earth Sci. 2015;4(3):112-119. doi: 10.11648/j.earth.20150403.14

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.earth.20150403.14,
  author = {Kassa Fekadu},
  title = {Ethiopian Seasonal Rainfall Variability and Prediction Using Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA)},
  journal = {Earth Sciences},
  volume = {4},
  number = {3},
  pages = {112-119},
  doi = {10.11648/j.earth.20150403.14},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20150403.14},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.earth.20150403.14},
  abstract = {Because Ethiopia’s economy is mainly dependent on rain-fed agriculture, the failure or the goodness of seasonal rainfall is incredibly decisive the country’s socio economic functioning- in particular, food production. As a result, the reliable seasonal rainfall prediction would have several advantages for agricultural activities, water management, health (Malaria control) and drought related disaster mitigation. In this paper an attempt is made to study the variability and predictability of two Ethiopian rainy seasons using statistical methods. Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) applied to analyze and predict seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia using global sea surface temperature (SST) predictor data and historical monthly total Ethiopian rainfall and merged both satellite and rain gauge rainfall data predictand data. It is found that in general, ENSO is the main source of predictive skill for Ethiopian seasonal rainfall. This is the case for both the Belg (small rainy season) from February to May and Kiremt (main rainy season) from June to September, during which other, more regional SST in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean also contribute. The objective approach provided by the CAA approach resulted in higher mean skill than the more subjective methods used traditionally by the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency (NMA) since the late 1980’s.},
 year = {2015}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Ethiopian Seasonal Rainfall Variability and Prediction Using Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA)
AU  - Kassa Fekadu
Y1  - 2015/06/06
PY  - 2015
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20150403.14
DO  - 10.11648/j.earth.20150403.14
T2  - Earth Sciences
JF  - Earth Sciences
JO  - Earth Sciences
SP  - 112
EP  - 119
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-5982
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20150403.14
AB  - Because Ethiopia’s economy is mainly dependent on rain-fed agriculture, the failure or the goodness of seasonal rainfall is incredibly decisive the country’s socio economic functioning- in particular, food production. As a result, the reliable seasonal rainfall prediction would have several advantages for agricultural activities, water management, health (Malaria control) and drought related disaster mitigation. In this paper an attempt is made to study the variability and predictability of two Ethiopian rainy seasons using statistical methods. Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) applied to analyze and predict seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia using global sea surface temperature (SST) predictor data and historical monthly total Ethiopian rainfall and merged both satellite and rain gauge rainfall data predictand data. It is found that in general, ENSO is the main source of predictive skill for Ethiopian seasonal rainfall. This is the case for both the Belg (small rainy season) from February to May and Kiremt (main rainy season) from June to September, during which other, more regional SST in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean also contribute. The objective approach provided by the CAA approach resulted in higher mean skill than the more subjective methods used traditionally by the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency (NMA) since the late 1980’s.
VL  - 4
IS  - 3
ER  -

Copy | Download