Research Article
A Comprehensive Assessment of Meteorological and Hydrological Drought Under Climate Change over the Upper Baro Watershed
Sintayehu Abera Wondimu*
Issue:
Volume 14, Issue 4, August 2025
Pages:
129-141
Received:
23 May 2025
Accepted:
11 June 2025
Published:
14 July 2025
DOI:
10.11648/j.earth.20251404.11
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Abstract: Drought is a complex natural hazard resulting from meteorological and hydrological phenomena. Meteorological drought, defined by precipitation shortfalls, frequently precedes hydrological drought, decreasing surface and groundwater availability. The Upper Baro Watershed, an important agricultural and hydrological hub in Ethiopia, is becoming more vulnerable to climate change-induced droughts. This article investigates the comprehensive assessment of the meteorological and hydrological drought, focusing on their roles in the hydrological cycle, the transition from meteorological to hydrological drought, and the consequences for water resources management. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Stream Drought Index (SDI) are used to perform a thorough evaluation of the hydrological and meteorological drought characteristics of historical and projected future drought in the upper Baro watershed. Historical model data from 1985 to 2014, along with estimates under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 emission scenarios for the middle of the century (2041-2070) and end of the century (2071-2000). The association between the SPI and SDI indices was studied over 30 years across the basin. Overlapping periods of 3, 6, 9, and 12 months were discovered. This study analyzes the top four climate models, including MPI-ESM1-2-HR, FGOLAS-g3, GFDL-ESM4, and INM-CM4-8. These models are assessed based on the upper Baro watershed. The findings reveal that in the study area, the MPI-ESM1-2-HR and INM-CM4-8 models are the best-performing climate models for the upper Baro watershed under the future climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8. The comprehensive assessment of the meteorological and hydrological drought under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios. The findings show that in mid-century (2041-2071), under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 emission scenarios, moderately wet to severely dry conditions will occur. Additionally, by the end of the century (2071-2100), under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 emission scenarios, moderately dry to severe drought conditions will emerge over the upper Baro watershed. The findings suggest that both the SPI and SDI indices are capable of catching major droughts in the upper Baro watershed over the last 30 years. The study recommended that understanding this link is crucial for successful drought monitoring, forecasting, and mitigation efforts.
Abstract: Drought is a complex natural hazard resulting from meteorological and hydrological phenomena. Meteorological drought, defined by precipitation shortfalls, frequently precedes hydrological drought, decreasing surface and groundwater availability. The Upper Baro Watershed, an important agricultural and hydrological hub in Ethiopia, is becoming more v...
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Research Article
Fault Block Trap Evaluation Technology and Application Effect Combining Static and Dynamic Characteristics of Gas Reservoirs in Complex High Steep Structural Zones
Ke Qin*,
Gao Wei,
Li He,
Ji Xuewu,
Qu Weihua,
Liu Xiaohong,
Pan Zhihao,
Wang Lei,
Li Li,
Wang Qing,
Zou Wen
Issue:
Volume 14, Issue 4, August 2025
Pages:
142-148
Received:
5 March 2025
Accepted:
22 April 2025
Published:
16 July 2025
DOI:
10.11648/j.earth.20251404.12
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Abstract: Due to strong compression in the later stage, multiple rows of positive structural zones were formed in southern Sichuan. The Dengjingguan structure is a high and steep structure with a complete anticline morphology, which develops from bottom to top and has favorable overall structural conditions. There are many drilling wells in the Jialingjiang Formation of the Dengjingguan structure, with drilling concentrated in the 1950s and 1960s. There are only three wells with complete drilling curves, and the faults within the structural zone are developed and fragmented as a whole. It is difficult to accurately identify the structural traps of the fault blocks within the structural zone, making it difficult to evaluate exploration potential and affecting subsequent well site deployment. In response to this issue, this article uses newly acquired 3D seismic data to carry out fine structural interpretation, combined with the actual drilling situation of production dynamic data, and combines static and dynamic to complete the evaluation of the Dengjingguan structural block. Dynamically leveraging the advantages of the new 3D, we can sort out the development patterns of faults from regions to blocks, and then from blocks to local systems, and use coherent attributes to determine the distribution of faults. Dynamically utilize the pressure coefficient of drilling and the production data of gas wells to validate the static interpretation plan, conduct well to well comparisons, and repeatedly revise the static interpretation results. The evaluation of fault block traps through the combination of static and dynamic gas reservoirs effectively reduces the ambiguity of complex high steep structural fault block interpretation, improves the rationality between wells, and provides reliable basis for the subsequent exploration and well location deployment of oil fields. It has good guidance and reference significance for the potential evaluation of complex high steep structural fault blocks in southern Sichuan in the future.
Abstract: Due to strong compression in the later stage, multiple rows of positive structural zones were formed in southern Sichuan. The Dengjingguan structure is a high and steep structure with a complete anticline morphology, which develops from bottom to top and has favorable overall structural conditions. There are many drilling wells in the Jialingjiang ...
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