Modelling and Analysis of Effect of Awareness Programs by Media on the Spread of COVID-19 Pandemic Disease

Fekadu Tadege Kobe

doi:doi:10.11648/j.mcs.20200505.12

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Modelling and Analysis of Effect of Awareness Programs by Media on the Spread of COVID-19 Pandemic Disease

Fekadu Tadege Kobe

Published in Mathematics and Computer Science (Volume 5, Issue 5)

Received: 21 October 2020 Accepted: 4 November 2020 Published: 11 December 2020

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Abstract

This paper proposes and analyses a basic deterministic mathematical model to investigate Modeling and Analysis of effect of awareness program by media on the spread COVID-19 Pandemic Disease. The model has seven non-linear differential equations, which describe the effects of awareness programs by media on the spread of COVID-19 Pandemic diseases. Analytical study carried out to investigate the model analysis and existence of stability of system, given threshold parameters known as the basic reproduction number, which obtained using next generation matrix method. The equilibrium of COVID 19 models is determined. In addition to having a disease-free equilibrium, which is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number less than one, COVID 19 model manifest one's possession of (a quality of) the phenomenon of backward bifurcation where a stable disease-free equilibrium co-exists (at the same time) with a stable endemic equilibrium for a certain range of associated reproduction number less than one. The analysis and simulation results of the model suggested that the most effective strategies for controlling or eradicating the spread of COVID 19 pandemic were suggest using that awareness programs through the media campaigning are helpful in decreasing the spread of COVID 19 Pandemic diseases by isolating a fraction of susceptible from infective.

Published in	Mathematics and Computer Science (Volume 5, Issue 5)
DOI	10.11648/j.mcs.20200505.12
Page(s)	93-102
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2020. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

COVID-19 Pandemic, Awareness Programs, Stability Analysis, SEIR Model and Reproduction Number

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Fekadu Tadege Kobe. (2020). Modelling and Analysis of Effect of Awareness Programs by Media on the Spread of COVID-19 Pandemic Disease. Mathematics and Computer Science, 5(5), 93-102. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.mcs.20200505.12

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ACS Style

Fekadu Tadege Kobe. Modelling and Analysis of Effect of Awareness Programs by Media on the Spread of COVID-19 Pandemic Disease. Math. Comput. Sci. 2020, 5(5), 93-102. doi: 10.11648/j.mcs.20200505.12

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AMA Style

Fekadu Tadege Kobe. Modelling and Analysis of Effect of Awareness Programs by Media on the Spread of COVID-19 Pandemic Disease. Math Comput Sci. 2020;5(5):93-102. doi: 10.11648/j.mcs.20200505.12

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@article{10.11648/j.mcs.20200505.12,
  author = {Fekadu Tadege Kobe},
  title = {Modelling and Analysis of Effect of Awareness Programs by Media on the Spread of COVID-19 Pandemic Disease},
  journal = {Mathematics and Computer Science},
  volume = {5},
  number = {5},
  pages = {93-102},
  doi = {10.11648/j.mcs.20200505.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.mcs.20200505.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.mcs.20200505.12},
  abstract = {This paper proposes and analyses a basic deterministic mathematical model to investigate Modeling and Analysis of effect of awareness program by media on the spread COVID-19 Pandemic Disease. The model has seven non-linear differential equations, which describe the effects of awareness programs by media on the spread of COVID-19 Pandemic diseases. Analytical study carried out to investigate the model analysis and existence of stability of system, given threshold parameters known as the basic reproduction number, which obtained using next generation matrix method. The equilibrium of COVID 19 models is determined. In addition to having a disease-free equilibrium, which is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number less than one, COVID 19 model manifest one's possession of (a quality of) the phenomenon of backward bifurcation where a stable disease-free equilibrium co-exists (at the same time) with a stable endemic equilibrium for a certain range of associated reproduction number less than one. The analysis and simulation results of the model suggested that the most effective strategies for controlling or eradicating the spread of COVID 19 pandemic were suggest using that awareness programs through the media campaigning are helpful in decreasing the spread of COVID 19 Pandemic diseases by isolating a fraction of susceptible from infective.},
 year = {2020}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Modelling and Analysis of Effect of Awareness Programs by Media on the Spread of COVID-19 Pandemic Disease
AU  - Fekadu Tadege Kobe
Y1  - 2020/12/11
PY  - 2020
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.mcs.20200505.12
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AB  - This paper proposes and analyses a basic deterministic mathematical model to investigate Modeling and Analysis of effect of awareness program by media on the spread COVID-19 Pandemic Disease. The model has seven non-linear differential equations, which describe the effects of awareness programs by media on the spread of COVID-19 Pandemic diseases. Analytical study carried out to investigate the model analysis and existence of stability of system, given threshold parameters known as the basic reproduction number, which obtained using next generation matrix method. The equilibrium of COVID 19 models is determined. In addition to having a disease-free equilibrium, which is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number less than one, COVID 19 model manifest one's possession of (a quality of) the phenomenon of backward bifurcation where a stable disease-free equilibrium co-exists (at the same time) with a stable endemic equilibrium for a certain range of associated reproduction number less than one. The analysis and simulation results of the model suggested that the most effective strategies for controlling or eradicating the spread of COVID 19 pandemic were suggest using that awareness programs through the media campaigning are helpful in decreasing the spread of COVID 19 Pandemic diseases by isolating a fraction of susceptible from infective.
VL  - 5
IS  - 5
ER  -

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Author Information

Fekadu Tadege Kobe

Department of Mathematics, College of Natural and Computational Science, Wachemo University, Hossana, Ethiopia

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Fekadu Tadege Kobe. (2020). Modelling and Analysis of Effect of Awareness Programs by Media on the Spread of COVID-19 Pandemic Disease. Mathematics and Computer Science, 5(5), 93-102. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.mcs.20200505.12

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ACS Style

Fekadu Tadege Kobe. Modelling and Analysis of Effect of Awareness Programs by Media on the Spread of COVID-19 Pandemic Disease. Math. Comput. Sci. 2020, 5(5), 93-102. doi: 10.11648/j.mcs.20200505.12

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AMA Style

Fekadu Tadege Kobe. Modelling and Analysis of Effect of Awareness Programs by Media on the Spread of COVID-19 Pandemic Disease. Math Comput Sci. 2020;5(5):93-102. doi: 10.11648/j.mcs.20200505.12

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@article{10.11648/j.mcs.20200505.12,
  author = {Fekadu Tadege Kobe},
  title = {Modelling and Analysis of Effect of Awareness Programs by Media on the Spread of COVID-19 Pandemic Disease},
  journal = {Mathematics and Computer Science},
  volume = {5},
  number = {5},
  pages = {93-102},
  doi = {10.11648/j.mcs.20200505.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.mcs.20200505.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.mcs.20200505.12},
  abstract = {This paper proposes and analyses a basic deterministic mathematical model to investigate Modeling and Analysis of effect of awareness program by media on the spread COVID-19 Pandemic Disease. The model has seven non-linear differential equations, which describe the effects of awareness programs by media on the spread of COVID-19 Pandemic diseases. Analytical study carried out to investigate the model analysis and existence of stability of system, given threshold parameters known as the basic reproduction number, which obtained using next generation matrix method. The equilibrium of COVID 19 models is determined. In addition to having a disease-free equilibrium, which is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number less than one, COVID 19 model manifest one's possession of (a quality of) the phenomenon of backward bifurcation where a stable disease-free equilibrium co-exists (at the same time) with a stable endemic equilibrium for a certain range of associated reproduction number less than one. The analysis and simulation results of the model suggested that the most effective strategies for controlling or eradicating the spread of COVID 19 pandemic were suggest using that awareness programs through the media campaigning are helpful in decreasing the spread of COVID 19 Pandemic diseases by isolating a fraction of susceptible from infective.},
 year = {2020}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Modelling and Analysis of Effect of Awareness Programs by Media on the Spread of COVID-19 Pandemic Disease
AU  - Fekadu Tadege Kobe
Y1  - 2020/12/11
PY  - 2020
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.mcs.20200505.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.mcs.20200505.12
T2  - Mathematics and Computer Science
JF  - Mathematics and Computer Science
JO  - Mathematics and Computer Science
SP  - 93
EP  - 102
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2575-6028
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.mcs.20200505.12
AB  - This paper proposes and analyses a basic deterministic mathematical model to investigate Modeling and Analysis of effect of awareness program by media on the spread COVID-19 Pandemic Disease. The model has seven non-linear differential equations, which describe the effects of awareness programs by media on the spread of COVID-19 Pandemic diseases. Analytical study carried out to investigate the model analysis and existence of stability of system, given threshold parameters known as the basic reproduction number, which obtained using next generation matrix method. The equilibrium of COVID 19 models is determined. In addition to having a disease-free equilibrium, which is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number less than one, COVID 19 model manifest one's possession of (a quality of) the phenomenon of backward bifurcation where a stable disease-free equilibrium co-exists (at the same time) with a stable endemic equilibrium for a certain range of associated reproduction number less than one. The analysis and simulation results of the model suggested that the most effective strategies for controlling or eradicating the spread of COVID 19 pandemic were suggest using that awareness programs through the media campaigning are helpful in decreasing the spread of COVID 19 Pandemic diseases by isolating a fraction of susceptible from infective.
VL  - 5
IS  - 5
ER  -

Copy | Download