Estimation of Seismic Hazard Potential and Attendant Potential Human Fatalities from a Scenario Earthquake on the Sanchiao Fault in Northern Taiwan

Kun-Sung Liu

doi:doi:10.11648/j.earth.20200901.13

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Estimation of Seismic Hazard Potential and Attendant Potential Human Fatalities from a Scenario Earthquake on the Sanchiao Fault in Northern Taiwan

Kun-Sung Liu

Published in Earth Sciences (Volume 9, Issue 1)

Received: 19 December 2019 Accepted: 2 January 2020 Published: 9 January 2020

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Abstract

In this article, the seismic hazard potential in northern Taiwan, including Taipei City, New Taipei City, Keelung City and northern Taoyuan areas are estimated in the form of peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity and Modified Mercalli Intensity as well as to assess attendant potential human fatalities from a scenario earthquake on the Sanchiao active fault in these areas. By using ground motion prediction equation method in a case of Mw6.88 resulting in the ShakeMap patterns of ground motion, showed the areas of PGA above 400 gals are located in the regions inside the yellow lines of the PGA contour map. Furthermore, the areas of PGA greater than 637 gal are located in the northern Bali and the border area of Sinjhuang and Shulin. Likewise, the high PGV area greater than 60 cm/s are located in the border area of Sinjhuang, Taishan and Shulin. In addition, from estimation of potential human fatalities for a scenario earthquake on the Sanchiao active fault, it is noted that potential fatalities increase rapidly in people above age 45. Total fatalities reach a high peak in age groups of 55–64. Another to pay special attention by Taipei City Government is the number and percentage of fatalities above age 85 are more in Taipei City with values of 419 and 8.54% than New than Taipei City with values of 319 and 5.02%. In addition, it is surprising that the number and percentage of fatalities are 1234 and 9.75%, respectively in Taoyuan City. Overall, the results of this paper will enable both local and central governments in Taiwan to take notice of potential earthquake threat in these areas, as well as to improve decision making with respect to emergency preparedness, response, and recovery activities for earthquakes in northern Taiwan.

Published in	Earth Sciences (Volume 9, Issue 1)
DOI	10.11648/j.earth.20200901.13
Page(s)	16-31
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2020. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Sanchiao Fault, Seismic Hazard Potential, Potential Human Fatality, ShakeMap, Northern Taiwan

References

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APA Style

Kun-Sung Liu. (2020). Estimation of Seismic Hazard Potential and Attendant Potential Human Fatalities from a Scenario Earthquake on the Sanchiao Fault in Northern Taiwan. Earth Sciences, 9(1), 16-31. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20200901.13

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ACS Style

Kun-Sung Liu. Estimation of Seismic Hazard Potential and Attendant Potential Human Fatalities from a Scenario Earthquake on the Sanchiao Fault in Northern Taiwan. Earth Sci. 2020, 9(1), 16-31. doi: 10.11648/j.earth.20200901.13

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AMA Style

Kun-Sung Liu. Estimation of Seismic Hazard Potential and Attendant Potential Human Fatalities from a Scenario Earthquake on the Sanchiao Fault in Northern Taiwan. Earth Sci. 2020;9(1):16-31. doi: 10.11648/j.earth.20200901.13

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@article{10.11648/j.earth.20200901.13,
  author = {Kun-Sung Liu},
  title = {Estimation of Seismic Hazard Potential and Attendant Potential Human Fatalities from a Scenario Earthquake on the Sanchiao Fault in Northern Taiwan},
  journal = {Earth Sciences},
  volume = {9},
  number = {1},
  pages = {16-31},
  doi = {10.11648/j.earth.20200901.13},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20200901.13},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.earth.20200901.13},
  abstract = {In this article, the seismic hazard potential in northern Taiwan, including Taipei City, New Taipei City, Keelung City and northern Taoyuan areas are estimated in the form of peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity and Modified Mercalli Intensity as well as to assess attendant potential human fatalities from a scenario earthquake on the Sanchiao active fault in these areas. By using ground motion prediction equation method in a case of Mw6.88 resulting in the ShakeMap patterns of ground motion, showed the areas of PGA above 400 gals are located in the regions inside the yellow lines of the PGA contour map. Furthermore, the areas of PGA greater than 637 gal are located in the northern Bali and the border area of Sinjhuang and Shulin. Likewise, the high PGV area greater than 60 cm/s are located in the border area of Sinjhuang, Taishan and Shulin. In addition, from estimation of potential human fatalities for a scenario earthquake on the Sanchiao active fault, it is noted that potential fatalities increase rapidly in people above age 45. Total fatalities reach a high peak in age groups of 55–64. Another to pay special attention by Taipei City Government is the number and percentage of fatalities above age 85 are more in Taipei City with values of 419 and 8.54% than New than Taipei City with values of 319 and 5.02%. In addition, it is surprising that the number and percentage of fatalities are 1234 and 9.75%, respectively in Taoyuan City. Overall, the results of this paper will enable both local and central governments in Taiwan to take notice of potential earthquake threat in these areas, as well as to improve decision making with respect to emergency preparedness, response, and recovery activities for earthquakes in northern Taiwan.},
 year = {2020}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Estimation of Seismic Hazard Potential and Attendant Potential Human Fatalities from a Scenario Earthquake on the Sanchiao Fault in Northern Taiwan
AU  - Kun-Sung Liu
Y1  - 2020/01/09
PY  - 2020
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20200901.13
DO  - 10.11648/j.earth.20200901.13
T2  - Earth Sciences
JF  - Earth Sciences
JO  - Earth Sciences
SP  - 16
EP  - 31
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-5982
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20200901.13
AB  - In this article, the seismic hazard potential in northern Taiwan, including Taipei City, New Taipei City, Keelung City and northern Taoyuan areas are estimated in the form of peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity and Modified Mercalli Intensity as well as to assess attendant potential human fatalities from a scenario earthquake on the Sanchiao active fault in these areas. By using ground motion prediction equation method in a case of Mw6.88 resulting in the ShakeMap patterns of ground motion, showed the areas of PGA above 400 gals are located in the regions inside the yellow lines of the PGA contour map. Furthermore, the areas of PGA greater than 637 gal are located in the northern Bali and the border area of Sinjhuang and Shulin. Likewise, the high PGV area greater than 60 cm/s are located in the border area of Sinjhuang, Taishan and Shulin. In addition, from estimation of potential human fatalities for a scenario earthquake on the Sanchiao active fault, it is noted that potential fatalities increase rapidly in people above age 45. Total fatalities reach a high peak in age groups of 55–64. Another to pay special attention by Taipei City Government is the number and percentage of fatalities above age 85 are more in Taipei City with values of 419 and 8.54% than New than Taipei City with values of 319 and 5.02%. In addition, it is surprising that the number and percentage of fatalities are 1234 and 9.75%, respectively in Taoyuan City. Overall, the results of this paper will enable both local and central governments in Taiwan to take notice of potential earthquake threat in these areas, as well as to improve decision making with respect to emergency preparedness, response, and recovery activities for earthquakes in northern Taiwan.
VL  - 9
IS  - 1
ER  -

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Author Information

Kun-Sung Liu

Department of Civil Engineering & Hazard Mitigation Research Center, Kao Yuan University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan, ROC

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APA Style

Kun-Sung Liu. (2020). Estimation of Seismic Hazard Potential and Attendant Potential Human Fatalities from a Scenario Earthquake on the Sanchiao Fault in Northern Taiwan. Earth Sciences, 9(1), 16-31. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20200901.13

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ACS Style

Kun-Sung Liu. Estimation of Seismic Hazard Potential and Attendant Potential Human Fatalities from a Scenario Earthquake on the Sanchiao Fault in Northern Taiwan. Earth Sci. 2020, 9(1), 16-31. doi: 10.11648/j.earth.20200901.13

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AMA Style

Kun-Sung Liu. Estimation of Seismic Hazard Potential and Attendant Potential Human Fatalities from a Scenario Earthquake on the Sanchiao Fault in Northern Taiwan. Earth Sci. 2020;9(1):16-31. doi: 10.11648/j.earth.20200901.13

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@article{10.11648/j.earth.20200901.13,
  author = {Kun-Sung Liu},
  title = {Estimation of Seismic Hazard Potential and Attendant Potential Human Fatalities from a Scenario Earthquake on the Sanchiao Fault in Northern Taiwan},
  journal = {Earth Sciences},
  volume = {9},
  number = {1},
  pages = {16-31},
  doi = {10.11648/j.earth.20200901.13},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20200901.13},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.earth.20200901.13},
  abstract = {In this article, the seismic hazard potential in northern Taiwan, including Taipei City, New Taipei City, Keelung City and northern Taoyuan areas are estimated in the form of peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity and Modified Mercalli Intensity as well as to assess attendant potential human fatalities from a scenario earthquake on the Sanchiao active fault in these areas. By using ground motion prediction equation method in a case of Mw6.88 resulting in the ShakeMap patterns of ground motion, showed the areas of PGA above 400 gals are located in the regions inside the yellow lines of the PGA contour map. Furthermore, the areas of PGA greater than 637 gal are located in the northern Bali and the border area of Sinjhuang and Shulin. Likewise, the high PGV area greater than 60 cm/s are located in the border area of Sinjhuang, Taishan and Shulin. In addition, from estimation of potential human fatalities for a scenario earthquake on the Sanchiao active fault, it is noted that potential fatalities increase rapidly in people above age 45. Total fatalities reach a high peak in age groups of 55–64. Another to pay special attention by Taipei City Government is the number and percentage of fatalities above age 85 are more in Taipei City with values of 419 and 8.54% than New than Taipei City with values of 319 and 5.02%. In addition, it is surprising that the number and percentage of fatalities are 1234 and 9.75%, respectively in Taoyuan City. Overall, the results of this paper will enable both local and central governments in Taiwan to take notice of potential earthquake threat in these areas, as well as to improve decision making with respect to emergency preparedness, response, and recovery activities for earthquakes in northern Taiwan.},
 year = {2020}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Estimation of Seismic Hazard Potential and Attendant Potential Human Fatalities from a Scenario Earthquake on the Sanchiao Fault in Northern Taiwan
AU  - Kun-Sung Liu
Y1  - 2020/01/09
PY  - 2020
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20200901.13
DO  - 10.11648/j.earth.20200901.13
T2  - Earth Sciences
JF  - Earth Sciences
JO  - Earth Sciences
SP  - 16
EP  - 31
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-5982
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.earth.20200901.13
AB  - In this article, the seismic hazard potential in northern Taiwan, including Taipei City, New Taipei City, Keelung City and northern Taoyuan areas are estimated in the form of peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity and Modified Mercalli Intensity as well as to assess attendant potential human fatalities from a scenario earthquake on the Sanchiao active fault in these areas. By using ground motion prediction equation method in a case of Mw6.88 resulting in the ShakeMap patterns of ground motion, showed the areas of PGA above 400 gals are located in the regions inside the yellow lines of the PGA contour map. Furthermore, the areas of PGA greater than 637 gal are located in the northern Bali and the border area of Sinjhuang and Shulin. Likewise, the high PGV area greater than 60 cm/s are located in the border area of Sinjhuang, Taishan and Shulin. In addition, from estimation of potential human fatalities for a scenario earthquake on the Sanchiao active fault, it is noted that potential fatalities increase rapidly in people above age 45. Total fatalities reach a high peak in age groups of 55–64. Another to pay special attention by Taipei City Government is the number and percentage of fatalities above age 85 are more in Taipei City with values of 419 and 8.54% than New than Taipei City with values of 319 and 5.02%. In addition, it is surprising that the number and percentage of fatalities are 1234 and 9.75%, respectively in Taoyuan City. Overall, the results of this paper will enable both local and central governments in Taiwan to take notice of potential earthquake threat in these areas, as well as to improve decision making with respect to emergency preparedness, response, and recovery activities for earthquakes in northern Taiwan.
VL  - 9
IS  - 1
ER  -

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