Research Article
Analysis of Epidemiological Characteristics of Esophageal Cancer in Kailu County, Inner Mongolia, 2009–2022 and Prediction of Incidence Trends from 2023 to 2025
Issue:
Volume 14, Issue 3, June 2026
Pages:
40-48
Received:
3 May 2026
Accepted:
4 June 2026
Published:
11 July 2026
DOI:
10.11648/j.ajcem.20261403.11
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Abstract: Objective: To investigate the epidemiological characteristics of esophageal cancer in Kailu County, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, from 2009 to 2022, and to predict trends in the incidence of esophageal cancer in the county from 2023 to 2025. Methods: Based on data on esophageal cancer incidence, mortality, and registered population in Kailu County from 2009 to 2022, crude incidence (mortality) rates, incidence (mortality) rates standardized to the Chinese population, and incidence (mortality) rates standardized to the world population were calculated by stratifying data by sex and age; The Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the annual percentage change (APC) in China-standardized rates, and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was employed to forecast trends in esophageal cancer incidence for 2023–2025. Results: From 2009 to 2022, the crude incidence and crude mortality rates of esophageal cancer in Kailu County were 25.31 per 100,000 and 20.58 per 100,000, respectively; the China-standardized incidence (mortality) rates were 23.59/100,000 (19.25/100,000), and the world-standardized incidence (mortality) rates were 22.09/100,000 (17.50/100,000); For men, all three incidence and mortality indicators were significantly higher than those for women (P < 0.05); the China-standardized incidence rate of esophageal cancer in the county showed an upward trend from 2009 to 2013 (APC = 12.86%, P = 0.23) and a year-on-year decline from 2013 to 2022 (APC = −12.66%, P < 0.05); The China-population-standardized mortality rate showed an upward trend from 2009 to 2013 (APC = 39.81%, P < 0.05) and a downward trend from 2013 to 2022 (APC = −9.12%, P < 0.05); The ARIMA(0,1,0) model predicts that the age-standardized incidence rate of esophageal cancer in the county will continue to decline from 2023 to 2025, with an estimated rate of 6.40 per 100,000 by 2025. Conclusion: From 2009 to 2022, the epidemiological characteristics of esophageal cancer in Kailu County were characterized by an initial rise followed by a decline in both incidence and mortality rates, with significant differences observed by age and gender; Although the incidence of esophageal cancer in the county is projected to drop to a relatively low level by 2025, the disease burden remains severe. Continuous monitoring of esophageal cancer is necessary, along with strengthened prevention and control efforts—including public awareness campaigns and interventions targeting high-risk populations—to reduce the disease burden.
Abstract: Objective: To investigate the epidemiological characteristics of esophageal cancer in Kailu County, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, from 2009 to 2022, and to predict trends in the incidence of esophageal cancer in the county from 2023 to 2025. Methods: Based on data on esophageal cancer incidence, mortality, and registered population in Kailu Cou...
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,
Wang Hao
