Research Article
On the Unreasonable Weak Effectiveness in Overlapping the Turbulent Flow Theoretical Models and the Prediction Models of Extreme Weather Events
Petre Roman*
Issue:
Volume 14, Issue 4, August 2025
Pages:
167-185
Received:
25 May 2025
Accepted:
11 June 2025
Published:
14 July 2025
DOI:
10.11648/j.ajmp.20251404.11
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Abstract: We try to understand the difficulties in using both theoretical modelling of turbulence and the theoretical essentialization of extreme climate events for the practical prediction calculations of the climate phenomena. We conceptually understand what contributes to rapid intensification of natural phenomena like heatwaves, floods, tornadoes or hurricanes. Predicting their rapid intensification is a completely different matter. This paper is devoted to the sudden and not frequent occurrence of extremely violent events that appear randomly in space and time in which turbulence is generally the main physical support. Coherence and regularities in this case are not yet clearly delineated. A close analogy between the theory of turbulence and the quantum theory of fields seems to me very attractive. On one hand we do have a rough, practical, working understanding of many turbulence phenomena but certainly far from a theory capable of describing them completely. On the other hand, there are hardwired patterns in nature (the well known tornado funnel pattern, for instance) and also systematic perturbations, induced by factors external to the local weather system. Under a critical combination of initial conditions and interactions an extreme event is triggered. Theoretical models available in physics, injected in the study of extreme climate phenomena could be of great use in resolving the immediacy to the consequences of global warming. We are compelled to adjust to wildly unpredictable circumstances and radical uncertainty. We try to achieve a better understanding of why the respective fields of climate (extreme events) models and theoretical mathematical models of turbulence physics are not sufficiently if not even essentially overlapping as they should be normally.
Abstract: We try to understand the difficulties in using both theoretical modelling of turbulence and the theoretical essentialization of extreme climate events for the practical prediction calculations of the climate phenomena. We conceptually understand what contributes to rapid intensification of natural phenomena like heatwaves, floods, tornadoes or hurr...
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